Chico
vs
Cucuta
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Chico 1–0 Cucuta
The model makes it 39% Chico, 30% draw, 31% Cucuta — fair odds of 2.56, 3.33 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Chico 1.41, Cucuta 1.10.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Chico are 14th on 11 points from 10 games; Cucuta are 12th on 12 points from 11 games — Primera A.
- Chico have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Deportivo Pasto.
- Cucuta have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Llaneros.
- Last 6 meetings: Cucuta 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 28 March 2026, ended Cucuta 1–0 Chico.
All Colombian Primera A predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Chico vs Cucuta
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Chico at 39% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Chico vs Cucuta
Chico
- W3-0Deportivo Pasto25 September 2026
- L0-3away to Millonarios19 September 2026
- L1-2Alianza Valledupar16 September 2026
- W2-1Independiente Medellin12 September 2026
- W2-0Once Caldas5 September 2026
Cucuta
- W2-1Llaneros26 September 2026
- L0-3away to Deportivo Cali19 September 2026
- L1-2Millonarios14 September 2026
- D2-2Deportivo Pasto5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Deportes Tolima1 September 2026
What these results say
- Chico scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Chico had three goals or more.
- Cucuta conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Cucuta had three goals or more.
- Cucuta failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Chico | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 11 |
| 12 | Cucuta | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Chico vs Cucuta
- 28 March 2026Cucuta 1–0 ChicoPrimera A
- 9 August 2022Cucuta 1–2 ChicoPrimera B
- 27 September 2020Chico 0–2 CucutaPrimera A
- 2 July 2017Cucuta 3–0 ChicoPrimera B
- 4 June 2017Cucuta 4–2 ChicoPrimera B
- 2 June 2017Chico 5–2 CucutaPrimera B
Leading scorers: Chico and Cucuta
Chico
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Cucuta
- J. Peralta8 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Chico carry a model rating of 6.23 against 6.29 for Cucuta. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.41 goals for Chico and 1.10 for Cucuta. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Chico rate 0.52 in attack and 1.80 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cucuta rate 0.60 and 1.86.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Cucuta, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Chico the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Chico against 1.10 for Cucuta. Chico's attack/defence rating is 0.52/1.8 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.86 for Cucuta.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Chico at home · Cucuta away
League matches only, Primera A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera A matches this season: Chico 29, Cucuta 30.
Chico score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); Cucuta have let in 7 there.
Cucuta score most often in the 31–45 minute window (8 goals); Chico have let in 9 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Chico
- vs Atletico Nacional17 Oct · Primera Awin 23%
- at Deportivo Pereira20 Oct · Primera Awin 28%
- vs Bucaramanga23 Oct · Primera Awin 27%
- vs Junior28 Oct · Primera Awin 29%
Cucuta
- vs Atletico Nacional21 Oct · Primera Awin 25%
- at America de Cali24 Oct · Primera Awin 16%
- vs Águilas Doradas27 Oct · Primera Awin 38%
- vs Santa Fe2 Nov · Primera Awin 29%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.