Istra 1961 vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb HNL prediction & result
Final score: Istra 1961 2-3 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Istra 1961, 24% draw, 33% NK Lokomotiva Zagreb — fair odds of 2.33, 4.17 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Istra 1961 at 43% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Istra 1961 vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Franko KolićG
- 44Rene HrvatinD
- 3Mohamed NasraouiD
- 16Samuli MiettinenD
- 13Niko ŠepićD
- 25Gustavo AlbarracínM
- 34Matija KablarM
- 22Emil FrederiksenM
- 80Ivan ŠaranićM
- 30Nik Škafar ŽužićM
- 94Hamza JaganjacF
- 97Advan KadušićD
- 88Daouda DoumbiaM
- 8Antonio MaurićM
- 20Dukan AhmetiM
- 11Silvio GoričanF
- 40Jan Paus-KunštG
- 24Filip TarabaD
- 66Mutari MomohD
- 23Stipe UkichM
- 12Josip PosavecG
- 14Marcel LorberD
- 4Athanasios TriantafyllouD
- 5Tino JukićD
- 17Marko PajačD
- 8Ivan KatićM
- 10Matija SubotićM
- 7Dušan VukovićM
- 29Jakov-Anton VasiljM
- 11Mirko SušakM
- 24Mirko MarićF
- 27Noa GodecD
- 9Leon BelcarM
- 22Mate AntunovićF
- 21Teodor KralevskiD
- 15Dominik ThaqiF
- 32Luka SavatovićG
- 20Kristijan ČabrajićD
- 6Feta FetaiM
- 30Duje ReićM
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Istra 1961 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 18 | +3 | 16 |
| 8 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Istra 1961 vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- 11 April 2026NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2–0 Istra 1961HNL
- 30 January 2026Istra 1961 1–1 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
- 25 October 2025NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–2 Istra 1961HNL
- 9 August 2025Istra 1961 2–2 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
- 3 May 2025NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0–0 Istra 1961HNL
Leading scorers: Istra 1961 and NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Istra 1961
GoalsAssists
- E. Frederiksen84
- H. Jaganjac51
- D. Ahmeti34
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
GoalsAssists
- D. Vuković32
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb won 3–2 at Istra 1961. The model had leaned towards a win for Istra 1961 at 43% and given a win for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: A. Triantafyllou 26' for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, E. Frederiksen 30' for Istra 1961, D. Vukovic 42' for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, E. Frederiksen 58' for Istra 1961, I. Katic 90' for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb. On expected goals it finished 2.35–0.93.