1 August 2026, 16:30 UTC

Istra 1961 vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb HNL prediction & result

Stadion Aldo Drosina, Pula
Full time2 – 3

Final score: Istra 1961 2-3 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Istra 1961, 24% draw, 33% NK Lokomotiva Zagreb — fair odds of 2.33, 4.17 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Istra 1961 at 43% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Istra 19615%Draw91%NK Lokomotiva Zagreb4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

26'
⚽A. Triantafyllou
⚽E. Frederiksenassist: N. Skafar Zuzic
30'
•Nik Škafar Žužić
34'
42'
⚽D. Vukovicassist: M. Maric
46'
🔁M. Lorberout: N. Godec
49'
Marko Pajač
⚽E. Frederiksen
58'
61'
🔁J. Vasiljout: L. Belcar
🔁M. Kablarout: D. Doumbia
63'
🔁R. Hrvatinout: A. Kadusic
63'
71'
🔁M. Maricout: M. Antunovic
🔁N. Skafar Zuzicout: D. Ahmeti
77'
🔁G. Albarracinout: A. Mauric
77'
79'
Noa Godec
🔁I. Saranicout: S. Gorican
85'
87'
🔁D. Vukovicout: T. Kralevski
87'
🔁M. Susakout: D. Thaqi
90+4'
Ivan Katić
90+4'
Mate Antunović
90+2'
•Ivan Katić
90'
⚽I. Katicassist: M. Pajac

Match stats — Istra 1961 vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

55%Possession45%
23Shots10
8On target5
7Corners4
2.35xG0.93

Goals against chances

Istra 19612 from 2.35 xGabout what the chances were worth
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb3 from 0.93 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Istra 1961 4-2-3-1
  • 1Franko KolićG
  • 44Rene HrvatinD
  • 3Mohamed NasraouiD
  • 16Samuli MiettinenD
  • 13Niko ŠepićD
  • 25Gustavo AlbarracínM
  • 34Matija KablarM
  • 22Emil FrederiksenM
  • 80Ivan ŠaranićM
  • 30Nik Škafar ŽužićM
  • 94Hamza JaganjacF
Substitutes
  • 97Advan KadušićD
  • 88Daouda DoumbiaM
  • 8Antonio MaurićM
  • 20Dukan AhmetiM
  • 11Silvio GoričanF
  • 40Jan Paus-KunštG
  • 24Filip TarabaD
  • 66Mutari MomohD
  • 23Stipe UkichM
Coach: Kresimir Rezic
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 4-2-3-1
  • 12Josip PosavecG
  • 14Marcel LorberD
  • 4Athanasios TriantafyllouD
  • 5Tino JukićD
  • 17Marko PajačD
  • 8Ivan KatićM
  • 10Matija SubotićM
  • 7Dušan VukovićM
  • 29Jakov-Anton VasiljM
  • 11Mirko SušakM
  • 24Mirko MarićF
Substitutes
  • 27Noa GodecD
  • 9Leon BelcarM
  • 22Mate AntunovićF
  • 21Teodor KralevskiD
  • 15Dominik ThaqiF
  • 32Luka SavatovićG
  • 20Kristijan ČabrajićD
  • 6Feta FetaiM
  • 30Duje ReićM
Coach: Nikica Jelavic

HNL table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Istra 196172321412+29
7NK Lokomotiva Zagreb7214913-47

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Istra 1961 vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

  • 1 August 2026Istra 1961 2–3 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
  • 11 April 2026NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2–0 Istra 1961HNL
  • 30 January 2026Istra 1961 1–1 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
  • 25 October 2025NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–2 Istra 1961HNL
  • 9 August 2025Istra 1961 2–2 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
  • 3 May 2025NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0–0 Istra 1961HNL

Leading scorers: Istra 1961 and NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

Istra 1961

  • E. Frederiksen7 goals2 assists
  • H. Jaganjac4 goals1 assists
  • D. Ahmeti2 goals3 assists

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

  • D. Vuković2 goals2 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.