Liga MX · Apertura - 3 · 1 August 2026, 01:00 UTC

Puebla vs Guadalajara Chivas

Puebla

The model makes it 27% Puebla, 25% draw, 48% Guadalajara Chivas — fair odds of 3.70, 4.00 and 2.08. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: Puebla 1.24, Guadalajara Chivas 1.74.

Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Model insights

59%
Both teams to score
57%
Over 2.5 goals
43%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 11%1-2 10%0-1 8%

Head-to-head: Puebla vs Guadalajara Chivas

  • 19 April 2026Guadalajara Chivas 5–0 PueblaLiga MX
  • 27 September 2025Puebla 0–2 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
  • 16 April 2025Guadalajara Chivas 1–0 PueblaLiga MX
  • 26 October 2024Puebla 1–0 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
  • 7 April 2024Guadalajara Chivas 3–2 PueblaLiga MX
  • 21 October 2023Puebla 0–2 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Guadalajara Chivas the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Puebla against 1.74 for Guadalajara Chivas. Puebla's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.31 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.95/1.29 for Guadalajara Chivas.