Puebla vs Guadalajara Chivas Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Puebla 1-1 Guadalajara Chivas.
Before kick-off the model made it 27% Puebla, 25% draw, 48% Guadalajara Chivas — fair odds of 3.70, 4.00 and 2.08. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Guadalajara Chivas at 48% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Puebla vs Guadalajara Chivas
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 28Daniel GutierrezG
- 12Iker MorenoD
- 5Facundo AlmadaD
- 4Juan Pablo VargasD
- 7Fernando MonarrezD
- 24Alejandro OrganistaM
- 21Sergio SanabriaM
- 26Kevin VelascoM
- 22Carlos BaltazarM
- 11Emiliano GómezM
- 29Eduardo MustreF
- 10Mathías TomásM
- 9Luifer HernándezF
- 15Óscar VillaD
- 8Omar MorenoF
- 33Jesús RodríguezG
- 2Angel LeyvaD
- 3Alberto HerreraM
- 34Lucas CamiloM
- 16Alonso RamirezM
- 1Raúl RangelG
- 23Daniel AguirreD
- 7Luis RomoD
- 2José CastilloD
- 28Fernando GonzálezM
- 37Richard LedezmaM
- 11Brian GutiérrezM
- 33Jordan CarrilloM
- 5Bryan GonzálezM
- 25Roberto AlvaradoF
- 34Armando GonzálezF
- 6Omar GoveaM
- 10Efrain AlvarezF
- 9Ángel SepúlvedaF
- 19Kevin CastañedaM
- 17Ricardo MarínF
- 13Óscar WhalleyG
- 3Diego CampilloD
- 24Miguel GómezD
- 18Jonathan PerezM
Form going into Puebla vs Guadalajara Chivas
Puebla
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Cruz Azul22 July 2026
- W1-0away to FC Juarez18 July 2026
Guadalajara Chivas
All competitions we cover
- W1-0FC Juarez25 July 2026
- L0-2Toluca19 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Puebla | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 16 |
| 3 | Guadalajara Chivas | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 21 | 12 | +9 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Puebla vs Guadalajara Chivas
- 19 April 2026Guadalajara Chivas 5–0 PueblaLiga MX
- 27 September 2025Puebla 0–2 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
- 16 April 2025Guadalajara Chivas 1–0 PueblaLiga MX
- 26 October 2024Puebla 1–0 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
- 7 April 2024Guadalajara Chivas 3–2 PueblaLiga MX
The result against the call
Puebla and Guadalajara Chivas drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Guadalajara Chivas at 48% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: E. Mustre 26' for Puebla, R. Alvarado 63' for Guadalajara Chivas. On expected goals it finished 0.59–1.86.