HNK Rijeka vs Rudes HNL prediction & result
Final score: HNK Rijeka 2-1 Rudes.
Before kick-off the model made it 68% HNK Rijeka, 18% draw, 14% Rudes — fair odds of 1.47, 5.56 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts HNK Rijeka at 68% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 410 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 65.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.3%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — HNK Rijeka vs Rudes
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 99Aleksa TodorovićG
- 23Justas LasickasD
- 45Ante MajstorovićD
- 5Alfonso BarcoD
- 34Mladen DevetakD
- 26Tiago DantasM
- 6Branko PavićM
- 11Gabriel RukavinaM
- 10Toni FrukM
- 4Niko JankovićM
- 18Daniel Adu-AdjeiF
- 14Amer GojakM
- 21Jakov PuljićF
- 8Ivan ĆubelićM
- 1Vito KovačG
- 31Dávid NwolokorG
- 3Moreno ŽivkovićD
- 22Ante OrečD
- 51Anel HusićD
- 91Noel BodetićD
- 95Lovre RogićG
- 4Vedran CeljakD
- 5Marko StolnikD
- 27Felipe CurcioM
- 2Toni KolegaM
- 28Xavier FernandesM
- 24Ivan ĐorićM
- 92Diego ŽivulićD
- 21Ante SušakM
- 11Jakov BlagaićF
- 11Jurica PoldrugačF
- 7Lenny IlečićF
- 10Vid SeitzM
- 19Karlo KamenarM
- 9Stefan VukićF
- 17Josip PejićF
- 1Filip HoljevacG
- 32Stipe DuvnjakG
- 3Nikica PeranovicD
- 23Ante UdovičićD
Form going into HNK Rijeka vs Rudes
HNK Rijeka
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to Derry City30 July 2026
- W1-0Derry City23 July 2026
Rudes
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | HNK Rijeka | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 14 | +3 | 17 |
| 9 | Rudes | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: HNK Rijeka vs Rudes
- 30 March 2024Rudes 0–3 HNK RijekaHNL
- 28 February 2024Rudes 0–1 HNK RijekaCup
- 16 December 2023HNK Rijeka 3–0 RudesHNL
- 1 October 2023Rudes 1–2 HNK RijekaHNL
- 22 July 2023HNK Rijeka 4–0 RudesHNL
Leading scorers: HNK Rijeka and Rudes
HNK Rijeka
GoalsAssists
- D. Adu-Adjei43
- S. Vignato41
- T. Fruk34
Rudes
GoalsAssists
- N. Skoko30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
HNK Rijeka beat Rudes 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for HNK Rijeka at 68%. The goals: Justas Lasickas 31' for HNK Rijeka, Daniel Adu-Adjei 62' for HNK Rijeka, Stefan Vukić 70' for Rudes. On expected goals it finished 2.33–0.28.