1 August 2026, 19:00 UTC

HNK Gorica vs NK Osijek HNL prediction & result

Gradski stadion Velika Gorica, Velika Gorica
Full time0 – 2

Final score: HNK Gorica 0-2 NK Osijek.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% HNK Gorica, 29% draw, 37% NK Osijek — fair odds of 2.94, 3.45 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts NK Osijek at 37% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

HNK Gorica0%Draw1%NK Osijek99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

7'
⚽I. Dolcekassist: Balelo
Stefan Perić
13'
14'
⚽N. Omerovic (pen)
🔁M. Gashiout: K. Carole
46'
46'
🔁Baleloout: A. Leon
🔁B. Bogojevicout: K. Custovic
62'
🔁O. Bakicout: L. Vrzic
62'
63'
🔁I. Dolcekout: A. Jakupovic
63'
🔁J. Jezicout: S. Mikolcic
65'
Šimun Mikolčić
78'
🔁L. Jelenicout: E. Hasic
🔁F. Brautout: J. Frigan
81'
86'
Senad Mustafic
🔁S. Pericout: H. I. Moustapha
87'
87'
🔁N. Omerovicout: A. Ljatifi

Match stats — HNK Gorica vs NK Osijek

46%Possession54%
9Shots26
4On target8
3Corners8
0.82xG2.68

Goals against chances

HNK Gorica0 from 0.82 xGless than the chances were worth
NK Osijek2 from 2.68 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

HNK Gorica 3-4-2-1
  • 71Davor MatijašG
  • 45Stefan PerićD
  • 32Jakov FilipovićD
  • 34Ivan CvijanovićD
  • 2Filip BrautM
  • 36Ante KaveljM
  • 24Domagoj PavičićM
  • 25Bruno BogojevićM
  • 7Ognjen BakićF
  • 99Medin GashiF
  • 9Patrik MijićF
Substitutes
  • 26Keenan CaroleF
  • 4Kevin CustovicM
  • 20Luka VrzićF
  • 66Juraj FriganM
  • 21Hadji Issa MoustaphaD
  • 1Renato JosipovićG
  • 30Darijan ŽarkovG
  • 28Elisandro Kožina AranhaD
  • 14Stjepan KučišM
Coach: Mario Carevic
NK Osijek 4-1-4-1
  • 31Marko MalenicaG
  • 77Senad MustaficD
  • 49Ivano KolarikD
  • 26Luka JelenićD
  • 22Roko JurišićD
  • 23Luka VrbančićM
  • 7Ivan DolčekM
  • 39Domagoj BukvićM
  • 48Jona JežićM
  • 11Nail OmerovićM
  • 99BaleloF
Substitutes
  • 79Armando LeónF
  • 8Šimun MikolčićM
  • 17Arnel JakupovićF
  • 33Emin HasićD
  • 30Admir LjatifiF
  • 1Nikola ĆurčijaG
  • 5Jon MersinajD
  • 47David KalemD
  • 18Niko FarkašM
Coach: Tomislav Radotic

HNL table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10HNK Gorica7025412-82
2NK Osijek75021711+615

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: HNK Gorica vs NK Osijek

  • 1 August 2026HNK Gorica 0–2 NK OsijekHNL
  • 16 May 2026HNK Gorica 2–0 NK OsijekHNL
  • 14 March 2026NK Osijek 0–0 HNK GoricaHNL
  • 13 December 2025NK Osijek 1–1 HNK GoricaHNL
  • 28 September 2025HNK Gorica 0–1 NK OsijekHNL
  • 19 April 2025NK Osijek 0–1 HNK GoricaHNL

Leading scorers: HNK Gorica and NK Osijek

HNK Gorica

  • B. Bogojević3 goals

NK Osijek

  • A. León5 goals1 assists
  • N. Omerović5 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.