Lyngby vs Aarhus Superliga prediction & result
Final score: Lyngby 2-2 Aarhus.
Before kick-off the model made it 73% Lyngby, 16% draw, 11% Aarhus — fair odds of 1.37, 6.25 and 9.09. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lyngby at 73% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 275 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lyngby vs Aarhus
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 31Diego KochenG
- 2Oskar BuurD
- 30Mikkel FischerD
- 12David Helgi AronssonD
- 25Renzo TytensD
- 19Gustav FrauloM
- 14Lauge SandgravM
- 13Casper WintherM
- 7Simon ColynM
- 10Ísak Snær ÞorvaldssonF
- 16Asbjorn BøndergaardF
- 5Oliver HøjerM
- 4Cornelius AllenD
- 1Jonathan ÆgidiusG
- 6Daniel Freyr KristjanssonD
- 17William SteindorssonM
- 18Jens Jakob ThomasenM
- 8Mathias HeboM
- 26Frederik GytkjærF
- 9Malik AbubakariF
- 21Mads HedenstadG
- 45Christian StorchD
- 5Frederik TingagerD
- 44Mouhammade CamaraD
- 23Mikael AndersonM
- 22Oskar HaugstrupM
- 16Jens JønssonM
- 39Frederik EmmeryM
- 31Tobias BechF
- 10Kristian ArnstadF
- 28James BogereF
- 19Eric KahlD
- 29Rasmus CarstensenD
- 33Luka CalløD
- 27Stefen TchamcheF
- 1Jesper HansenG
- 46Hamuza SengoobaD
- 20Tómas Óli KristjánssonF
- 4Magnus KnudsenM
- 8Sebastian JørgensenM
Form going into Lyngby vs Aarhus
Lyngby
- L2-3away to FC Copenhagen26 July 2026
Aarhus
- W4-1away to Lech Poznan29 July 2026
- D1-1Brondby25 July 2026
- L1-4Lech Poznan21 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Lyngby | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Aarhus | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lyngby vs Aarhus
- 1 August 2026Lyngby 2–2 AarhusSuperliga
- 3 November 2024Aarhus 2–1 LyngbySuperliga
- 22 September 2024Lyngby 0–0 AarhusSuperliga
- 22 October 2023Lyngby 0–2 AarhusSuperliga
- 27 August 2023Aarhus 1–0 LyngbySuperliga
- 30 October 2022Lyngby 0–1 AarhusSuperliga
Leading scorers: Lyngby and Aarhus
Lyngby
- Í. Þorvaldsson3 goals2 assists
- S. Colyn3 goals1 assists
Aarhus
- J. Serra3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.