Lyngby vs Aarhus Superliga prediction & result
Final score: Lyngby 2-2 Aarhus.
Before kick-off the model made it 73% Lyngby, 16% draw, 11% Aarhus — fair odds of 1.37, 6.25 and 9.09. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Danish Superliga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lyngby at 73% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 410 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 65.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.3%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lyngby vs Aarhus
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 31Diego KochenG
- 2Oskar BuurD
- 30Mikkel FischerD
- 12David Helgi AronssonD
- 25Renzo TytensD
- 19Gustav FrauloM
- 14Lauge SandgravM
- 13Casper WintherM
- 7Simon ColynM
- 10Ísak Snær ÞorvaldssonF
- 16Asbjorn BøndergaardF
- 5Oliver HøjerM
- 4Cornelius AllenD
- 1Jonathan ÆgidiusG
- 6Daniel Freyr KristjanssonD
- 17William SteindorssonM
- 18Jens Jakob ThomasenM
- 8Mathias HeboM
- 26Frederik GytkjærF
- 9Malik AbubakariF
- 21Mads HedenstadG
- 45Christian StorchD
- 5Frederik TingagerD
- 44Mouhammade CamaraD
- 23Mikael AndersonM
- 22Oskar HaugstrupM
- 16Jens JønssonM
- 39Frederik EmmeryM
- 31Tobias BechF
- 10Kristian ArnstadF
- 28James BogereF
- 19Eric KahlD
- 29Rasmus CarstensenD
- 33Luka CalløD
- 27Stefen TchamcheF
- 1Jesper HansenG
- 46Hamuza SengoobaD
- 20Tómas Óli KristjánssonF
- 4Magnus KnudsenM
- 8Sebastian JørgensenM
Form going into Lyngby vs Aarhus
Lyngby
All competitions we cover
- L2-3away to FC Copenhagen26 July 2026
Aarhus
All competitions we cover
- W3-0away to Lech Poznan29 July 2026
- D1-1Brondby25 July 2026
- L1-4Lech Poznan21 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Lyngby | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 28 | -9 | 11 |
| 8 | Aarhus | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lyngby vs Aarhus
- 3 November 2024Aarhus 2–1 LyngbySuperliga
- 22 September 2024Lyngby 0–0 AarhusSuperliga
- 22 October 2023Lyngby 0–2 AarhusSuperliga
- 27 August 2023Aarhus 1–0 LyngbySuperliga
- 30 October 2022Lyngby 0–1 AarhusSuperliga
Leading scorers: Lyngby and Aarhus
Lyngby
GoalsAssists
- S. Colyn52
- Í. Þorvaldsson32
Aarhus
GoalsAssists
- J. Serra50
- C. McCowatt32
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Lyngby and Aarhus drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Lyngby at 73% and given a draw 16%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 6 matches like this one. The goals: K. Arnstad (penalty) 33' for Aarhus, Dani 67' for Lyngby, F. Gytkjaer (penalty) 88' for Lyngby, J. Jonsson 90+1' for Aarhus. On expected goals it finished 2.93–1.43.