Samsunspor
vs
Çorum FK
Süper Lig prediction & result
Final score: Samsunspor 1-5 Çorum FK.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% Samsunspor, 30% draw, 36% Çorum FK — fair odds of 2.94, 3.33 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Samsunspor 1.21, Çorum FK 1.27.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Samsunspor vs Çorum FK
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Çorum FK at 36% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Samsunspor vs Çorum FK
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Okan KocukG
- 2Josafat MendesD
- 16Strahinja ErakovićD
- 34Gabriele GuarinoD
- 17Logi TomassonD
- 5Celil YükselM
- 8Samed OnurM
- 30Saikuba JarjuM
- 20Yalçın KayanM
- 11Emre KılınçM
- 9Marius MouandilmadjiF
- 42Antoine SekongoM
- 18Mohamed BayoF
- 22Yunus Emre ÇiftD
- 29Haluk Mustafa TanD
- 25Bilal BayazitG
- 13Efe Yiğit ÜstünG
- 3Igor DrapińskiD
- 23Enes AlbakD
- 1Marcos FelipeG
- 11Gökhan SazdağıD
- 4Serdar SaatçıD
- 6Hrvoje SmolčićD
- 24Andrei BorzaD
- 20Ylber RamadaniM
- 7Cengiz ÜnderM
- 10Mohammed DiomandeM
- 16FredyM
- 89Alexandros KyziridisM
- 19Jesús RamírezF
- 3Berat ÖzdemirM
- 26Ermin MahmićM
- 14Youssoufa MoukokoF
- 5Alexandre PenetraD
- 21Göktan GürpüzM
- 18Erhan ErentürkG
- 88Cemali SertelD
- 15Arda ŞengülD
- 2Çağlar SöyüncüD
Form going into Samsunspor vs Çorum FK
Samsunspor
- L0-1away to Kocaelispor6 September 2026
- L0-2Fenerbahçe30 August 2026
- W2-0away to Rizespor22 August 2026
- D3-3Göztepe17 August 2026
Çorum FK
- W3-0Eyüpspor6 September 2026
- L2-6away to Beşiktaş31 August 2026
- L0-1Kasımpaşa22 August 2026
- D2-2away to Galatasaray14 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Samsunspor | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 4 |
| 10 | Çorum FK | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Samsunspor vs Çorum FK
- 12 September 2026Samsunspor 1–5 Çorum FKSüper Lig
- 26 March 2024Samsunspor 6–1 Çorum FKFriendlies Clubs
- 8 December 2019Çorum FK 2–1 Samsunspor2. Lig
Leading scorers: Samsunspor and Çorum FK
Samsunspor
No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Çorum FK
- C. Ramírez3 goals1 assists
- A. Kyziridis3 goals1 assists
- Ermin Mahmić2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.21 goals for Samsunspor and 1.27 for Çorum FK; the game produced 1 and 5.
A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.
Goals
Scorers, in order: J. Ramirez 1' (Çorum FK), L. Tomasson 5' (Samsunspor), C. Under 10' (Çorum FK), C. Under 15' (Çorum FK), A. Kyziridis 69' (Çorum FK), J. Ramirez 71' (Çorum FK).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Çorum FK the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Samsunspor against 1.27 for Çorum FK. Samsunspor's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.24 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1.14 for Çorum FK.