Samsunspor vs Çorum FK Süper Lig prediction & result
Final score: Samsunspor 1-5 Çorum FK.
Before kick-off the model made it 30% Samsunspor, 30% draw, 40% Çorum FK — fair odds of 3.33, 3.33 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Çorum FK at 40% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Samsunspor vs Çorum FK
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Okan KocukG
- 2Josafat MendesD
- 16Strahinja ErakovićD
- 34Gabriele GuarinoD
- 17Logi TomassonD
- 5Celil YükselM
- 8Samed OnurM
- 30Saikuba JarjuM
- 20Yalçın KayanM
- 11Emre KılınçM
- 9Marius MouandilmadjiF
- 42Antoine SekongoM
- 18Mohamed BayoF
- 22Yunus Emre ÇiftD
- 29Haluk Mustafa TanD
- 25Bilal BayazitG
- 13Efe Yiğit ÜstünG
- 3Igor DrapińskiD
- 23Enes AlbakD
- 1Marcos FelipeG
- 11Gökhan SazdağıD
- 4Serdar SaatçıD
- 6Hrvoje SmolčićD
- 24Andrei BorzaD
- 20Ylber RamadaniM
- 7Cengiz ÜnderM
- 10Mohammed DiomandeM
- 16FredyM
- 89Alexandros KyziridisM
- 19Jesús RamírezF
- 3Berat ÖzdemirM
- 26Ermin MahmićM
- 14Youssoufa MoukokoF
- 5Alexandre PenetraD
- 21Göktan GürpüzM
- 18Erhan ErentürkG
- 88Cemali SertelD
- 15Arda ŞengülD
- 2Çağlar SöyüncüD
Form going into Samsunspor vs Çorum FK
Samsunspor
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Kocaelispor6 September 2026
- L0-2Fenerbahçe30 August 2026
- W2-0away to Rizespor22 August 2026
- D3-3Göztepe17 August 2026
Çorum FK
All competitions we cover
- W3-0Eyüpspor6 September 2026
- L2-6away to Beşiktaş31 August 2026
- L0-1Kasımpaşa22 August 2026
- D2-2away to Galatasaray14 August 2026
What these results say
- Samsunspor failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Samsunspor conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Samsunspor had two goals or fewer.
- Çorum FK failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Çorum FK scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Çorum FK conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Samsunspor | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 21 | -13 | 4 |
| 9 | Çorum FK | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Samsunspor vs Çorum FK
- 26 March 2024Samsunspor 6–1 Çorum FKFriendlies Clubs
- 8 December 2019Çorum FK 2–1 Samsunspor2. Lig
Leading scorers: Samsunspor and Çorum FK
Samsunspor
No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Çorum FK
GoalsAssists
- A. Kyziridis44
- C. Ramírez41
- C. Ünder41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Çorum FK won 5–1 at Samsunspor. The model had made a win for Çorum FK its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: J. Ramirez 1' for Çorum FK, L. Tomasson 5' for Samsunspor, C. Under 10' for Çorum FK, C. Under 15' for Çorum FK, A. Kyziridis 69' for Çorum FK, J. Ramirez 71' for Çorum FK. On expected goals it finished 0.91–1.52.
How the call on Samsunspor v Çorum FK has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 43% / 29% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 30% / 30% / 40%: the biggest move is Samsunspor's chance of winning, down 13 points.
- Samsunspor win30%▼ −13
- Draw30%▲ +1
- Çorum FK win40%▲ +12
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.