Dundee United
vs
Dundee
Premiership prediction
The model makes it 40% Dundee United, 26% draw, 34% Dundee — fair odds of 2.50, 3.85 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Dundee United 1.52, Dundee 1.38.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Dundee United
- L0-4away to Heart of Midlothian9 August 2026
- D1-1Rangers31 July 2026
Dundee
- W2-0Aberdeen8 August 2026
- L0-1away to Celtic3 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Dundee United | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | Dundee | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Dundee United
- L. Rose1 goals
Dundee
- J. Bevan1 goals1 assists
- J. Westley1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Dundee United carry a model rating of 6.16 against 6.26 for Dundee. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Dundee United D-L; Dundee L-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.52 goals for Dundee United and 1.38 for Dundee. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dundee United rate 0.47 in attack and 1.89 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dundee rate 0.52 and 1.71.
That points to 55% for over two and a half goals and 59% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Dundee, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dundee United the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Dundee United against 1.38 for Dundee. Dundee United's attack/defence rating is 0.47/1.89 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/1.71 for Dundee.