Atletico Tucuman
vs
Instituto Cordoba
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
The model makes it 33% Atletico Tucuman, 26% draw, 41% Instituto Cordoba — fair odds of 3.03, 3.85 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Atletico Tucuman 1.30, Instituto Cordoba 1.50.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Atletico Tucuman
No earlier matches on record this season.
Instituto Cordoba
- W1-0Gimnasia Mendoza9 August 2026
- W1-0away to Lanus3 August 2026
- W2-1Platense30 July 2026
- L0-1away to Velez Sarsfield24 July 2026
- W2-0away to Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto5 May 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Leading scorers
Atletico Tucuman
- L. Díaz7 goals1 assists
Instituto Cordoba
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Atletico Tucuman carry a model rating of 6.71 against 6.9 for Instituto Cordoba. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Atletico Tucuman W-D-W-D-L; Instituto Cordoba W-L-W-W-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.30 goals for Atletico Tucuman and 1.50 for Instituto Cordoba. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Atletico Tucuman rate 0.67 in attack and 0.94 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Instituto Cordoba rate 1.14 and 1.03.
That points to 53% for over two and a half goals and 57% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Instituto Cordoba the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.3 expected goals for Atletico Tucuman against 1.5 for Instituto Cordoba. Atletico Tucuman's attack/defence rating is 0.67/0.94 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.14/1.03 for Instituto Cordoba.