Gimnasia La Plata vs Gimnasia Mendoza Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Gimnasia La Plata 2-3 Gimnasia Mendoza.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Gimnasia La Plata, 20% draw, 31% Gimnasia Mendoza — fair odds of 2.04, 5.00 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Gimnasia La Plata at 49%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Gimnasia La Plata vs Gimnasia Mendoza
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 23N. InsfranG
- 31B. Barros SchelottoD
- 35J. CortazzoD
- 21E. MartinezD
- 24P. Silva TorrejonD
- 5I. MiramonM
- 16A. MaxM
- 10N. SchelottoM
- 8N. FernandezM
- 29A. AuzmendiF
- 19A. ColazoF
- 27J. KadijevicG
- 22M. MellusoD
- 4R. GiampaoliD
- 36L. LamellaD
- 18M. SeoaneM
- 20J. PerezM
- 33P. AguiarM
- 9M. ZalazarF
- 7M. PanaroF
- 23C. RigamontiG
- 32L. ParedesD
- 2D. MondinoD
- 4E. MunozD
- 3M. RecaldeD
- 21F. AntoniniM
- 26F. LencioniM
- 28T. O'ConnorM
- 30E. FernandezM
- 7L. CingolaniM
- 9A. ModicaF
- 31L. PetruchiG
- 42L. CarreraM
- 16G. GuiffreyD
- 36I. CortezD
- 19J. CeballosM
- 5N. BarbozaM
- 33B. AndradaF
- 8M. VargasF
- 11S. RodriguezF
Form going into Gimnasia La Plata vs Gimnasia Mendoza
Gimnasia La Plata
All competitions we cover
- L0-4away to Estudiantes La Plata15 August 2026
- W2-0Barracas Central9 August 2026
- W2-1away to Aldosivi2 August 2026
- W1-0River Plate29 July 2026
- L1-2away to Racing Club24 July 2026
Gimnasia Mendoza
All competitions we cover
- W3-1Talleres Cordoba18 August 2026
- L0-1away to Instituto Cordoba9 August 2026
- W2-0Union Santa Fe1 August 2026
- L0-1away to San Lorenzo28 July 2026
- W1-0Central Cordoba de Santiago24 July 2026
What these results say
- Gimnasia La Plata scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Gimnasia Mendoza had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Gimnasia La Plata | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 20 | +5 | 31 |
| 8 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 17 | +1 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Gimnasia La Plata vs Gimnasia Mendoza
- 21 February 2026Gimnasia Mendoza 0–1 Gimnasia La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Gimnasia La Plata and Gimnasia Mendoza
Gimnasia La Plata
GoalsAssists
- M. Torres102
- A. Auzmendi84
Gimnasia Mendoza
GoalsAssists
- A. Módica140
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Gimnasia Mendoza won 3–2 at Gimnasia La Plata. The model had leaned towards a win for Gimnasia La Plata at 49% and given a win for Gimnasia Mendoza 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: A. Modica 17' for Gimnasia Mendoza, A. Modica 39' for Gimnasia Mendoza, A. Auzmendi 46' for Gimnasia La Plata, M. Zalazar 62' for Gimnasia La Plata, A. Modica 76' for Gimnasia Mendoza. On expected goals it finished 1.48–1.98.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.