Gimnasia La Plata
vs
Gimnasia Mendoza
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
The model makes it 77% Gimnasia La Plata, 13% draw, 10% Gimnasia Mendoza — fair odds of 1.30, 7.69 and 10.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Gimnasia La Plata 3.34, Gimnasia Mendoza 1.21.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 83%, under 2.5: 17%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Gimnasia La Plata
No earlier matches on record this season.
Gimnasia Mendoza
- L0-1away to Instituto Cordoba9 August 2026
- W2-0Union Santa Fe1 August 2026
- L0-1away to San Lorenzo28 July 2026
- W1-0Central Cordoba de Santiago24 July 2026
- W2-1Defensa Y Justicia4 May 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Leading scorers
Gimnasia La Plata
- M. Torres8 goals1 assists
Gimnasia Mendoza
- A. Módica7 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Gimnasia La Plata carry a model rating of 6.82 against 6.46 for Gimnasia Mendoza. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Gimnasia La Plata W-L-L-W-W; Gimnasia Mendoza W-W-L-W-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.34 goals for Gimnasia La Plata and 1.21 for Gimnasia Mendoza. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gimnasia La Plata rate 1.07 in attack and 1.15 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gimnasia Mendoza rate 0.75 and 1.65.
That points to 83% for over two and a half goals and 68% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 3-1 (8%), 2-1 (7%), 4-1 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gimnasia La Plata the highest probability at 77%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.34 expected goals for Gimnasia La Plata against 1.21 for Gimnasia Mendoza. Gimnasia La Plata's attack/defence rating is 1.07/1.15 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.65 for Gimnasia Mendoza.