Gimnasia La Plata
vs
Belgrano Cordoba
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Gimnasia La Plata 1–0 Belgrano Cordoba
The model makes it 38% Gimnasia La Plata, 32% draw, 30% Belgrano Cordoba — fair odds of 2.63, 3.13 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Gimnasia La Plata 1.13, Belgrano Cordoba 0.94.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 34%, under 2.5: 66%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,017 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- Gimnasia La Plata are 3rd on 25 points from 14 games; Belgrano Cordoba are 4th on 22 points from 13 games — Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura - Group B.
- Gimnasia La Plata are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 2-0 win at home to Sarmiento Junin.
- Belgrano Cordoba have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to River Plate.
- Last 6 meetings: Belgrano Cordoba 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 26 April 2026, ended Belgrano Cordoba 0–1 Gimnasia La Plata.
More Liga Profesional Argentina predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Gimnasia La Plata vs Belgrano Cordoba
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Gimnasia La Plata at 38% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 3,676 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Gimnasia La Plata vs Belgrano Cordoba
Gimnasia La Plata
Liga Profesional Argentina
- W2-0Sarmiento Junin23 October 2026
- W2-1away to Huracan15 October 2026
- D1-1Atletico Tucuman9 October 2026
- D1-1away to Independiente Rivadavia3 October 2026
- D2-2Banfield19 September 2026
Belgrano Cordoba
Liga Profesional Argentina
- L0-3River Plate18 October 2026
- W2-0away to Racing Club11 October 2026
- W1-0away to Talleres Cordoba4 October 2026
- W2-1Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Sarmiento Junin13 September 2026
What these results say
- Gimnasia La Plata went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Gimnasia La Plata scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Gimnasia La Plata conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Belgrano Cordoba scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Gimnasia La Plata | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 21 | 18 | +3 | 25 |
| 4 | Belgrano Cordoba | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Gimnasia La Plata vs Belgrano Cordoba
- 26 April 2026Belgrano Cordoba 0–1 Gimnasia La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
- 26 August 2024Belgrano Cordoba 0–1 Gimnasia La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
- 16 April 2023Gimnasia La Plata 0–2 Belgrano CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 2 November 2018Belgrano Cordoba 2–0 Gimnasia La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
- 25 November 2017Belgrano Cordoba 2–0 Gimnasia La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
- 10 December 2016Gimnasia La Plata 1–1 Belgrano CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Gimnasia La Plata and Belgrano Cordoba
Gimnasia La Plata
GoalsAssists
- M. Torres92
- A. Auzmendi73
Belgrano Cordoba
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Gimnasia La Plata carry a model rating of 6.68 against 6.73 for Belgrano Cordoba. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.13 goals for Gimnasia La Plata and 0.94 for Belgrano Cordoba. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gimnasia La Plata rate 0.92 in attack and 1.30 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Belgrano Cordoba rate 0.78 and 1.00.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gimnasia La Plata the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Gimnasia La Plata against 0.94 for Belgrano Cordoba. Gimnasia La Plata's attack/defence rating is 0.92/1.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1 for Belgrano Cordoba.
How the model reaches 38% for Gimnasia La Plata to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 34% for Gimnasia La Plata to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Gimnasia La Plata's ratings take away 7 points and Belgrano Cordoba's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground34%
- Home advantage41%+7
- Gimnasia La Plata's ratings34%−7
- Belgrano Cordoba's ratings38%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Gimnasia La Plata at home · Belgrano Cordoba away
League matches only, Liga Profesional Argentina, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Profesional Argentina matches this season: Gimnasia La Plata 31, Belgrano Cordoba 32.
Gimnasia La Plata score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); Belgrano Cordoba have let in 6 there.
Belgrano Cordoba score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); Gimnasia La Plata have let in 10 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.