Instituto Cordoba
vs
Gimnasia Mendoza
The model makes it 62% Instituto Cordoba, 19% draw, 19% Gimnasia Mendoza — fair odds of 1.61, 5.26 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Instituto Cordoba 2.48, Gimnasia Mendoza 1.34.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%, under 2.5: 27%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Instituto Cordoba
- W1-0away to Lanus3 August 2026
- W2-1Platense30 July 2026
- L0-1away to Velez Sarsfield24 July 2026
- W2-0away to Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto5 May 2026
- D1-1away to Newell's Old Boys26 April 2026
Gimnasia Mendoza
- W2-0Union Santa Fe1 August 2026
- L0-1away to San Lorenzo28 July 2026
- W1-0Central Cordoba de Santiago24 July 2026
- W2-1Defensa Y Justicia4 May 2026
- L1-5away to Independiente Rivadavia26 April 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Instituto Cordoba | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 21 |
| 11 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Instituto Cordoba vs Gimnasia Mendoza
- 9 February 2026Gimnasia Mendoza 1–0 Instituto CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 27 July 2022Gimnasia Mendoza 2–0 Instituto CordobaPrimera Nacional
- 17 November 2019Gimnasia Mendoza 2–1 Instituto CordobaPrimera Nacional
- 20 April 2019Instituto Cordoba 1–1 Gimnasia MendozaPrimera Nacional
- 12 July 2015Instituto Cordoba 2–0 Gimnasia MendozaPrimera Nacional
Leading scorers
Instituto Cordoba
No league goals recorded yet.
Gimnasia Mendoza
- A. Módica7 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Instituto Cordoba carry a model rating of 6.81 against 6.66 for Gimnasia Mendoza. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Instituto Cordoba D-W-L-W-W; Gimnasia Mendoza L-W-W-L-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.48 goals for Instituto Cordoba and 1.34 for Gimnasia Mendoza. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Instituto Cordoba rate 0.95 in attack and 1.03 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gimnasia Mendoza rate 0.93 and 1.38.
That points to 73% for over two and a half goals and 68% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 3-1 (7%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Instituto Cordoba a 0.5% chance of the title and Gimnasia Mendoza 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 234 correct results out of 488 settled predictions (48%), with 47 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Instituto Cordoba the highest probability at 62%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.48 expected goals for Instituto Cordoba against 1.34 for Gimnasia Mendoza. Instituto Cordoba's attack/defence rating is 0.95/1.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.93/1.38 for Gimnasia Mendoza.