IFK Goteborg
vs
Kalmar FF
The model makes it 38% IFK Goteborg, 27% draw, 35% Kalmar FF — fair odds of 2.63, 3.70 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: IFK Goteborg 1.39, Kalmar FF 1.31.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Form going into this match
IFK Goteborg
- W2-0Degerfors IF2 August 2026
- L1-4away to Sirius26 July 2026
- W2-1IF Brommapojkarna17 July 2026
- L0-4away to Malmo FF12 July 2026
- L1-2AIK Stockholm5 July 2026
Kalmar FF
- D1-1away to BK Hacken1 August 2026
- W2-1Mjallby AIF25 July 2026
- D2-2Malmo FF20 July 2026
- L0-2away to Hammarby FF12 July 2026
- W3-0Orgryte IS5 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | IFK Goteborg | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 33 | -14 | 16 |
| 10 | Kalmar FF | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 19 | 21 | -2 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: IFK Goteborg vs Kalmar FF
- 23 April 2026Kalmar FF 1–1 IFK GoteborgAllsvenskan
- 2 November 2024IFK Goteborg 1–1 Kalmar FFAllsvenskan
- 14 April 2024Kalmar FF 0–1 IFK GoteborgAllsvenskan
- 30 July 2023IFK Goteborg 2–0 Kalmar FFAllsvenskan
- 9 April 2023Kalmar FF 2–0 IFK GoteborgAllsvenskan
- 22 August 2022Kalmar FF 1–0 IFK GoteborgAllsvenskan
Leading scorers
IFK Goteborg
No league goals recorded yet.
Kalmar FF
- C. Rosenquist6 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
IFK Goteborg carry a model rating of 6.46 against 6.61 for Kalmar FF. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): IFK Goteborg L-L-W-L-W; Kalmar FF W-L-D-W-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.39 goals for IFK Goteborg and 1.31 for Kalmar FF. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
IFK Goteborg rate 0.73 in attack and 1.61 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Kalmar FF rate 0.58 and 1.01.
That points to 51% for over two and a half goals and 55% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Kalmar FF, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 211 correct results out of 450 settled predictions (47%), with 45 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives IFK Goteborg the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.39 expected goals for IFK Goteborg against 1.31 for Kalmar FF. IFK Goteborg's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.61 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.01 for Kalmar FF.