Halmstad
vs
Gais
The model makes it 38% Halmstad, 25% draw, 37% Gais — fair odds of 2.63, 4.00 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Halmstad 1.51, Gais 1.48.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Halmstad
- L0-2Sirius3 August 2026
- D1-1away to Gais26 July 2026
- L0-2BK Hacken19 July 2026
- L0-3away to Djurgardens IF13 July 2026
- L1-3Vasteras SK FK4 July 2026
Gais
- D1-1Halmstad26 July 2026
- L0-2away to AIK Stockholm18 July 2026
- W1-0IF Elfsborg12 July 2026
- D1-1away to IF Brommapojkarna6 July 2026
- W3-0Kalmar FF30 May 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Halmstad | 15 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 31 | -20 | 7 |
| 9 | Gais | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Halmstad vs Gais
- 26 July 2026Gais 1–1 HalmstadAllsvenskan
- 17 June 2026Gais 1–1 HalmstadFriendlies Clubs
- 29 March 2026Gais 2–0 HalmstadFriendlies Clubs
- 26 July 2025Gais 3–0 HalmstadAllsvenskan
- 14 May 2025Halmstad 1–3 GaisAllsvenskan
- 18 August 2024Gais 3–1 HalmstadAllsvenskan
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Halmstad carry a model rating of 6.19 against 6.32 for Gais. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Halmstad L-L-L-D-L; Gais W-D-W-L-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.51 goals for Halmstad and 1.48 for Gais. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Halmstad rate 0.41 in attack and 1.60 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gais rate 0.66 and 1.95.
That points to 57% for over two and a half goals and 61% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Gais, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 211 correct results out of 450 settled predictions (47%), with 45 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Halmstad the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Halmstad against 1.48 for Gais. Halmstad's attack/defence rating is 0.41/1.6 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.95 for Gais.