Liga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 4 · 9 August 2026, 18:00 UTC

San Lorenzo vs Huracan

Estadio Pedro Bidegain, Buenos Aires

The model makes it 35% San Lorenzo, 26% draw, 39% Huracan — fair odds of 2.86, 3.85 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: San Lorenzo 1.43, Huracan 1.50.

Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.

Model confidence: Low.

Model insights

60%
Both teams to score
56%
Over 2.5 goals
44%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 12%1-2 9%2-1 8%

Form going into this match

San Lorenzo

  • L0-1away to Central Cordoba de Santiago4 August 2026
  • W1-0Gimnasia Mendoza28 July 2026
  • L0-1away to Lanus26 July 2026
  • L1-2Independiente2 May 2026
  • W1-0away to Platense25 April 2026

Huracan

No earlier matches on record this season.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.

Head-to-head: San Lorenzo vs Huracan

  • 8 February 2026Huracan 1–0 San LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 30 August 2025San Lorenzo 0–0 HuracanLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 23 February 2025Huracan 2–0 San LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 20 July 2024San Lorenzo 1–1 HuracanLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 24 February 2024Huracan 0–0 San LorenzoCopa de la Liga Profesional
  • 30 September 2023San Lorenzo 1–1 HuracanCopa de la Liga Profesional

Leading scorers

San Lorenzo

No league goals recorded yet.

Huracan

  • J. Caicedo9 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

The two sides

San Lorenzo carry a model rating of 6.46 against 6.63 for Huracan. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

Recent form (most recent last): San Lorenzo W-L-L-W-L; Huracan L-D-W-L-D.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.43 goals for San Lorenzo and 1.50 for Huracan. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

San Lorenzo rate 0.62 in attack and 1.36 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Huracan rate 0.79 and 1.22.

That points to 56% for over two and a half goals and 60% for both teams to score.

The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 211 correct results out of 450 settled predictions (47%), with 45 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Huracan the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.43 expected goals for San Lorenzo against 1.5 for Huracan. San Lorenzo's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.22 for Huracan.