Independiente vs Platense Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Independiente 0-1 Platense.
Before kick-off the model made it 66% Independiente, 17% draw, 17% Platense — fair odds of 1.52, 5.88 and 5.88.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Independiente at 66%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Independiente vs Platense
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 33Rodrigo ReyG
- 4Santiago AriasD
- 13Juan FedorcoD
- 26Kevin LomónacoD
- 22Facundo ZabalaD
- 16Mateo Perez CurciM
- 23Iván MarconeM
- 28Maximiliano GutiérrezM
- 7Santiago MontielM
- 19Matías AbaldoM
- 9Gabriel ÁvalosF
- 14Lautaro MillánM
- 8Maxi MezaF
- 10Luciano CabralM
- 77Santiago MeleG
- 21Fernando ClosterD
- 3Jonathan De IrastorzaD
- 35Juan Miguel ArrayagoD
- 38Luciano BarrosD
- 32David MartínezM
- 30Juan CozzaniG
- 25Juan Ignacio SaboridoD
- 13Ignacio VazquezD
- 31Víctor CuestaD
- 3Tomás Ariel SilvaD
- 26Pablo FerreiraM
- 24Martín BarriosM
- 7Guido MaineroM
- 23Leonardo HerediaM
- 10Franco ZapiolaM
- 20Luciano GiménezF
- 43Nicolás RetamarF
- 16Gastón TogniF
- 19Héctor BobadillaF
- 11Nico LópezF
- 22Nicolás SumavilG
- 32Santiago QuirosD
- 34Mateo MendiaD
- 4Agustín LagosD
- 18Bautista MerliniF
Form going into Independiente vs Platense
Independiente
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Velez Sarsfield3 August 2026
- W1-0Newell's Old Boys31 July 2026
- W2-0away to Estudiantes La Plata26 July 2026
Platense
All competitions we cover
- L0-4Talleres Cordoba3 August 2026
- L1-2away to Instituto Cordoba30 July 2026
- D2-2Union Santa Fe25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Independiente | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 23 |
| 10 | Platense | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Independiente vs Platense
- 8 February 2026Platense 0–1 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
- 24 October 2025Independiente 3–0 PlatenseLiga Profesional Argentina
- 17 February 2025Platense 1–1 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
- 19 May 2024Platense 0–0 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
- 5 February 2023Independiente 1–2 PlatenseLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Independiente and Platense
Independiente
GoalsAssists
- G. Ávalos115
Platense
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Platense won 1–0 at Independiente. The model had leaned towards a win for Independiente at 66% and given a win for Platense 17%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 6 matches like this one. The goal: G. Mainero 65' for Platense. On expected goals it finished 0.95–0.71.