Independiente
vs
Platense
The model makes it 66% Independiente, 17% draw, 17% Platense — fair odds of 1.52, 5.88 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Independiente 2.74, Platense 1.37.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 78%, under 2.5: 22%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Independiente
- L0-1away to Velez Sarsfield3 August 2026
- W1-0Newell's Old Boys31 July 2026
- W2-0away to Estudiantes La Plata26 July 2026
- L1-3away to Rosario Central10 May 2026
- W2-1away to San Lorenzo2 May 2026
Platense
- L0-4Talleres Cordoba3 August 2026
- L1-2away to Instituto Cordoba30 July 2026
- D2-2Union Santa Fe25 July 2026
- L0-2Estudiantes La Plata3 May 2026
- L0-1San Lorenzo25 April 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Independiente | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 24 | 20 | +4 | 24 |
| 12 | Platense | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Independiente vs Platense
- 8 February 2026Platense 0–1 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
- 24 October 2025Independiente 3–0 PlatenseLiga Profesional Argentina
- 17 February 2025Platense 1–1 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
- 19 May 2024Platense 0–0 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
- 5 February 2023Independiente 1–2 PlatenseLiga Profesional Argentina
- 5 July 2022Independiente 1–3 PlatenseLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers
Independiente
- G. Ávalos11 goals5 assists
Platense
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Independiente carry a model rating of 6.49 against 6.31 for Platense. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Independiente W-L-W-W-L; Platense L-L-D-L-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.74 goals for Independiente and 1.37 for Platense. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Independiente rate 0.71 in attack and 1.46 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Platense rate 0.67 and 2.04.
That points to 78% for over two and a half goals and 70% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (8%), 3-1 (8%), 1-1 (6%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Independiente a 6.8% chance of the title and Platense 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 211 correct results out of 450 settled predictions (47%), with 45 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Independiente the highest probability at 66%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.74 expected goals for Independiente against 1.37 for Platense. Independiente's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.46 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/2.04 for Platense.