Paykan vs Shams Azar Qazvin Persian Gulf Pro League prediction & result
Final score: Paykan 1-1 Shams Azar Qazvin.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Paykan, 29% draw, 27% Shams Azar Qazvin — fair odds of 2.27, 3.45 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Persian Gulf Pro League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Paykan at 44% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Form going into Paykan vs Shams Azar Qazvin
Paykan
- L0-1away to Esteghlal FC10 September 2026
- W2-0Sanat Naft6 September 2026
- L0-1away to ZOB Ahan2 September 2026
- D0-0Esteghlal Khuzestan28 August 2026
Shams Azar Qazvin
- L2-3Gol Gohar10 September 2026
- L0-1away to Chadormalu SC6 September 2026
- D0-0Tractor Sazi1 September 2026
- W2-0away to Nassaji Mazandaran28 August 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 4 matches for Paykan had two goals or fewer.
- Paykan failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Paykan failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Shams Azar Qazvin failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Shams Azar Qazvin had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Persian Gulf Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Paykan | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 9 |
| 15 | Shams Azar Qazvin | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Paykan vs Shams Azar Qazvin
- 10 October 2026Paykan 1–1 Shams Azar QazvinPersian Gulf Pro League
- 28 January 2026Paykan 0–1 Shams Azar QazvinPersian Gulf Pro League
- 13 September 2025Shams Azar Qazvin 1–1 PaykanPersian Gulf Pro League
- 30 April 2024Shams Azar Qazvin 2–1 PaykanPersian Gulf Pro League
- 10 November 2023Paykan 1–1 Shams Azar QazvinPersian Gulf Pro League
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.