10 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

Mariehamn vs Ilves Finnish Premier League prediction & result

Mariehamn
Referee: Matti Roth
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Mariehamn 1-1 Ilves.

Before kick-off the model made it 25% Mariehamn, 22% draw, 53% Ilves — fair odds of 4.00, 4.55 and 1.89.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Ilves at 53%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Mariehamn4%Draw89%Ilves7%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Samson Ngulube
35'
43'
Sauli Väisänen
45+3'
Goudouss Bamba
🔁Samson Ngulubeout: Aaro Soiniemi
64'
🔁Anttoni Huttunenout: Thomas Klemetsen Jakobsen
64'
66'
Matias Rale
66'
🔁Goudouss Bambaout: Maksim Stjopin
66'
🔁Oskari Multalaout: Yiandro Raap
67'
🔁Elias Tamminenout: Stanislav Baranov
69'
⚽Teemu Hytönen
Arvid Bergvik
74'
78'
🔁Matias Raleout: Tatu Miettunen
🔁Adam Larssonout: Marlo Hyvonen
81'
⚽Thomas Klemetsen Jakobsenassist: Ludvig Richtner
84'
87'
🔁Teemu Hytönenout: Hamidou Coulibaly
🔁Adam Stroudout: Wille Nuñez
88'

Match stats — Mariehamn vs Ilves

56%Possession44%
16Shots16
2On target4
5Corners3
1.66xG1.95

Goals against chances

Mariehamn1 from 1.66 xGless than the chances were worth
Ilves1 from 1.95 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Mariehamn 4-2-3-1
  • 1K. LundG
  • 27L. RichtnérD
  • 2N. NurmiD
  • 5T. KoivistoD
  • 31Samson NgulubeD
  • 23V. WidlundM
  • 20E. PatutM
  • 16A. HuttunenM
  • 14Arvid BergvikM
  • 18A. StroudM
  • 7A. LarssonF
Substitutes
  • 11J. SvedbergM
  • 43L. AnderssonF
  • 12O. HeinoG
  • 17Rasmus HolmbergM
  • 19T. JakobsenF
  • 26M. JanssonM
  • 9W. NuñezF
  • 3A. SoiniemiD
  • 64M. HyvönenM
Coach: R. Björknesjö
Ilves 4-4-2
  • 12F. KrkalićG
  • 22O. MultalaD
  • 5S. VäisänenD
  • 24V. KumpuD
  • 3M. RaleD
  • 13K. WalliusM
  • 19Goudouss BambaM
  • 14A. PopovitchM
  • 28J. KiloM
  • 45E. TamminenF
  • 9T. HytönenF
Substitutes
  • 17S. BaranovF
  • 11H. CoulibalyF
  • 31R. LeislahtiG
  • 16T. MiettunenD
  • 6Y. RaapM
  • 33Y. SackoM
  • 8M. StjopinF
Coach: Camilo Speranza

Form going into Mariehamn vs Ilves

Mariehamn

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2away to SJK18 September 2026
  • W1-0Turku PS12 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Lahti8 September 2026
  • W2-0FF Jaro31 August 2026
  • W4-2away to KuPS23 August 2026

Ilves

All competitions we cover

  • W3-0away to Turku PS19 September 2026
  • W3-1Lahti12 September 2026
  • W2-0FF Jaro8 September 2026
  • L1-2HJK Helsinki31 August 2026
  • L0-1VPS22 August 2026

What these results say

  • Mariehamn scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Ilves scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Mariehamn vs Ilves

  • 9 August 2026Ilves 2–0 MariehamnFinnish Premier League
  • 18 April 2026Mariehamn 2–2 IlvesFinnish Premier League
  • 31 August 2025Ilves 2–1 MariehamnFinnish Premier League
  • 27 April 2025Mariehamn 3–2 IlvesFinnish Premier League

Leading scorers: Mariehamn and Ilves

Mariehamn

No leading scorers listed yet.

Ilves

GoalsAssists

  • T. Hytönen91
  • J. Kanga43
  • E. Tamminen42

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Mariehamn and Ilves drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Ilves at 53% and given a draw 22%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Teemu Hytönen 69' for Ilves, Thomas Klemetsen Jakobsen 84' for Mariehamn. On expected goals it finished 1.66–1.95.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Ilves a 35.5% chance to finish top of the Championship Group: 51.2% after a win, 16.9% after a draw, 5.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 16.9%, 18.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Finnish Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Mariehamn v Ilves has moved

First published on 26 Sep at 26% / 25% / 49% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 25% / 22% / 53%: the biggest move is Ilves's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Mariehamn win25%▼ −1
  2. Draw22%▼ −3
  3. Ilves win53%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.