Mariehamn
vs
Ilves
Veikkausliiga prediction
Our model says: Mariehamn 1–2 Ilves
The model makes it 26% Mariehamn, 25% draw, 49% Ilves — fair odds of 3.85, 4.00 and 2.04. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: Mariehamn 1.45, Ilves 2.41.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 74%, under 2.5: 26%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Mariehamn vs Ilves
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ilves at 49% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Mariehamn vs Ilves
Mariehamn
- L1-2away to SJK18 September 2026
- W1-0Turku PS12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Lahti8 September 2026
- W2-0FF Jaro31 August 2026
- W4-2away to KuPS23 August 2026
Ilves
- W3-0away to Turku PS19 September 2026
- W3-1Lahti12 September 2026
- W2-0FF Jaro8 September 2026
- L1-2HJK Helsinki31 August 2026
- L0-1VPS22 August 2026
What these results say
- Mariehamn scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Ilves scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: Mariehamn vs Ilves
- 9 August 2026Ilves 2–0 MariehamnVeikkausliiga
- 18 April 2026Mariehamn 2–2 IlvesVeikkausliiga
- 31 August 2025Ilves 2–1 MariehamnVeikkausliiga
- 27 April 2025Mariehamn 3–2 IlvesVeikkausliiga
- 11 August 2024Ilves 2–0 MariehamnVeikkausliiga
Leading scorers: Mariehamn and Ilves
Mariehamn
No leading scorers listed yet.
Ilves
- T. Hytönen7 goals
- J. Kanga4 goals3 assists
- E. Tamminen3 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Mariehamn carry a model rating of 5.91 against 6.26 for Ilves. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.45 goals for Mariehamn and 2.41 for Ilves. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Mariehamn rate 0.40 in attack and 2.62 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ilves rate 0.65 and 2.17.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ilves the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Mariehamn against 2.41 for Ilves. Mariehamn's attack/defence rating is 0.4/2.62 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/2.17 for Ilves.