Kolding IF
vs
HB Koge
1. Division prediction
Our model says: Kolding IF 1–0 HB Koge
The model makes it 44% Kolding IF, 28% draw, 28% HB Koge — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Kolding IF 1.53, HB Koge 1.11.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Kolding IF are 8th on 12 points from 11 games; HB Koge are 9th on 10 points from 11 games — 1. Division.
- Kolding IF are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Vendsyssel FF.
- HB Koge have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to AB Copenhagen.
- Last 6 meetings: Kolding IF 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 23 August 2026, ended HB Koge 2–2 Kolding IF.
More 1. Division (Denmark) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Kolding IF vs HB Koge
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Kolding IF at 44% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Kolding IF vs HB Koge
Kolding IF
- W2-1Vendsyssel FF16 October 2026
- D1-1away to Hobro10 October 2026
- D1-1Hillerød18 September 2026
- D0-0FC Fredericia12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Aarhus Fremad6 September 2026
HB Koge
- L2-3AB Copenhagen16 October 2026
- W2-0away to Vendsyssel FF11 October 2026
- W5-2Hobro21 September 2026
- D2-2away to Esbjerg12 September 2026
- D1-1Hillerød4 September 2026
What these results say
- Kolding IF failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kolding IF scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kolding IF conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- HB Koge scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- HB Koge conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for HB Koge.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Kolding IF | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 12 |
| 9 | HB Koge | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Kolding IF
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 27% today
HB Koge
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 43% today
From our 1. Division season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Kolding IF vs HB Koge
- 23 August 2026HB Koge 2–2 Kolding IF1. Division
- 17 October 2025HB Koge 2–1 Kolding IF1. Division
- 1 August 2025Kolding IF 3–1 HB Koge1. Division
- 25 October 2024HB Koge 0–1 Kolding IF1. Division
- 14 September 2024Kolding IF 1–1 HB Koge1. Division
- 7 October 2023Kolding IF 3–1 HB Koge1. Division
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Kolding IF carry a model rating of 6.17 against 6.16 for HB Koge. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.53 goals for Kolding IF and 1.11 for HB Koge. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Kolding IF rate 0.45 in attack and 1.77 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; HB Koge rate 0.52 and 2.09.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Kolding IF a 0.1% chance of the title and HB Koge 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Kolding IF the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Kolding IF against 1.11 for HB Koge. Kolding IF's attack/defence rating is 0.45/1.77 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/2.09 for HB Koge.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Kolding IF at home · HB Koge away
League matches only, 1. Division, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Division matches this season: Kolding IF 11, HB Koge 11.
Kolding IF score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); HB Koge have let in 4 there.
HB Koge score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Kolding IF have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Kolding IF
- at Hillerød7 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 29%
- vs Aalborg20 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 44%
- at Hvidovre27 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 21%
- vs Esbjerg4 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 47%
HB Koge
- vs Aalborg6 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 45%
- at Vejle21 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 19%
- vs Aarhus Fremad28 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 38%
- at Hillerød5 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 29%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.