Hull City
vs
Ipswich
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Hull City 2–1 Ipswich
The model makes it 43% Hull City, 26% draw, 31% Ipswich — fair odds of 2.33, 3.85 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Hull City 1.68, Ipswich 1.32.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Hull City are 9th on 9 points from 7 games; Ipswich are 10th on 9 points from 7 games — Premier League.
- Hull City have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Fulham.
- Ipswich have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Manchester City.
- Last 6 meetings: Ipswich 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 3 March 2026, ended Ipswich 1–0 Hull City.
More Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Hull City vs Ipswich
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hull City at 43% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Hull City vs Ipswich
Hull City
- L0-1away to Fulham17 October 2026
- D2-2Everton11 October 2026
- L1-2away to Newcastle19 September 2026
- D2-2away to Chelsea12 September 2026
- D0-0Aston Villa5 September 2026
Ipswich
- L2-3away to Manchester City17 October 2026
- W2-1Fulham10 October 2026
- L0-1away to Everton19 September 2026
- W3-2away to Crystal Palace12 September 2026
- L0-2Liverpool4 September 2026
What these results say
- Hull City did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Hull City conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Ipswich conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Hull City | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 9 |
| 10 | Ipswich | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Hull City
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 12% today
Ipswich
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 16% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Hull City vs Ipswich
- 3 March 2026Ipswich 1–0 Hull CityChampionship
- 25 November 2025Hull City 0–2 IpswichChampionship
- 27 April 2024Hull City 3–3 IpswichChampionship
- 3 October 2023Ipswich 3–0 Hull CityChampionship
- 23 February 2021Hull City 0–1 IpswichLeague One
- 24 November 2020Ipswich 0–3 Hull CityLeague One
Leading scorers: Hull City and Ipswich
Hull City
GoalsAssists
- M. Belloumi32
Ipswich
GoalsAssists
- Emersonn21
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Hull City carry a model rating of 6.88 against 6.84 for Ipswich. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.68 goals for Hull City and 1.32 for Ipswich. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hull City rate 0.88 in attack and 0.84 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ipswich rate 1.13 and 1.19.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hull City the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Hull City against 1.32 for Ipswich. Hull City's attack/defence rating is 0.88/0.84 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.13/1.19 for Ipswich.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Hull City at home · Ipswich away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Hull City 7, Ipswich 6.
Ipswich score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Hull City have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Hull City
- at Arsenal7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 15%
- vs Brighton22 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 27%
- at Crystal Palace29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 36%
- vs Nottingham Forest2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 39%
Ipswich
- vs Bournemouth8 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 40%
- at Tottenham21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 38%
- vs Aston Villa28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 32%
- at Coventry2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.