Hobro
vs
FC Fredericia
1. Division prediction
Our model says: Hobro 0–1 FC Fredericia
The model makes it 25% Hobro, 29% draw, 46% FC Fredericia — fair odds of 4.00, 3.45 and 2.17.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Hobro 0.94, FC Fredericia 1.45.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
One-sided: FC Fredericia are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Hobro's rating is built from 46 1. Division (Denmark) matches and FC Fredericia's from 14, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Hobro are 7th on 16 points from 14 games; FC Fredericia are 3rd on 23 points from 14 games — 1. Division.
- Hobro have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Esbjerg.
- FC Fredericia have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Vejle.
- Last 6 meetings: FC Fredericia 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 17 October 2026, ended FC Fredericia 3–0 Hobro.
More 1. Division (Denmark) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Hobro vs FC Fredericia
Has the model earned this number?
FC Fredericia at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Hobro vs FC Fredericia
Hobro
1. Division
- L0-1Esbjerg7 November 2026
- D1-1away to Aalborg30 October 2026
- D2-2Vendsyssel FF23 October 2026
- L0-3away to FC Fredericia17 October 2026
- D1-1Kolding IF10 October 2026
FC Fredericia
1. Division
- L0-1away to Vejle6 November 2026
- W3-1AB Copenhagen31 October 2026
- L1-2away to Esbjerg24 October 2026
- W3-0Hobro17 October 2026
- W2-0away to Hillerød10 October 2026
What these results say
- Hobro did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Hobro conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Fredericia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Denmark 1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Hobro | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 24 | -8 | 16 |
| 3 | FC Fredericia | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 21 | 10 | +11 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Hobro vs FC Fredericia
- 17 October 2026FC Fredericia 3–0 Hobro1. Division
- 27 October 2024Hobro 1–4 FC Fredericia1. Division
- 16 September 2024FC Fredericia 1–1 Hobro1. Division
- 2 June 2024FC Fredericia 0–1 Hobro1. Division
- 20 April 2024Hobro 1–2 FC Fredericia1. Division
- 25 February 2024Hobro 0–2 FC Fredericia1. Division
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Hobro a 0% chance of the title and FC Fredericia 7.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Fredericia the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Hobro against 1.45 for FC Fredericia. Hobro's attack/defence rating is 0.45/2.15 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.28 for FC Fredericia.
How the model reaches 46% for FC Fredericia to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for FC Fredericia to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Hobro's ratings add 9 points and FC Fredericia's ratings add 9 points, which lands on the published 46%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Both sides at this match's level28%−1
- Hobro's ratings37%+9
- FC Fredericia's ratings46%+9
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Hobro at home · FC Fredericia away
League matches only, 1. Division, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Division matches this season: Hobro 14, FC Fredericia 14.
Hobro score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); FC Fredericia have let in 3 there.
FC Fredericia score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Hobro have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Hobro
- at Vejle6 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 16%
- vs Hillerød20 Feb · 1. Divisionwin 39%
- at Kolding IF27 Feb · 1. Divisionwin 26%
- at Hvidovre6 Mar · 1. Divisionwin 16%
FC Fredericia
- vs Hvidovre6 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 45%
- vs Kolding IF20 Feb · 1. Divisionwin 57%
- at Aarhus Fremad27 Feb · 1. Divisionwin 36%
- at HB Koge6 Mar · 1. Divisionwin 43%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.