Regular Season - 11 · 28 November 2026, 16:00 UTC

Apoel Nicosia vs Krasava Ypsonas 1. Division prediction

GSP Stadium, Nicosia

Our model says: Apoel Nicosia 2–0 Krasava Ypsonas

The model makes it 66% Apoel Nicosia, 20% draw, 14% Krasava Ypsonas — fair odds of 1.52, 5.00 and 7.14.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).

Expected goals: Apoel Nicosia 2.44, Krasava Ypsonas 0.87.

Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.

One-sided: Apoel Nicosia are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Apoel Nicosia's rating is built from 45 Cypriot First Division matches and Krasava Ypsonas's from 42, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Apoel Nicosia are 4th on 17 points from 9 games; Krasava Ypsonas are bottom on 5 points from 9 games — 1. Division.
  • Apoel Nicosia are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 3-1 win at home to Aris.
  • Krasava Ypsonas are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to AEL.
  • Last 2 meetings: Apoel Nicosia 1 win to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 13 December 2025, ended Apoel Nicosia 0–0 Krasava Ypsonas.

More Cypriot First Division predictions

All Cypriot First Division predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Apoel Nicosia vs Krasava Ypsonas

54%
Both teams to score
64%
Over 2.5 goals
36%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Apoel Nicosia win Draw Krasava Ypsonas win
  1. 2–011%
  2. 2–19%
  3. 3–09%
  4. 1–09%
  5. 1–18%
  6. 3–18%
  7. 4–05%

Scores read Apoel Nicosia first; the other scorelines share the remaining 41%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Apoel Nicosia at 66%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Apoel Nicosia vs Krasava Ypsonas

Apoel Nicosia

1. Division

  • W3-1Aris8 November 2026
  • W2-1away to Omonia Aradippou1 November 2026
  • W4-1Omonia 29is Maiou25 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Pafos19 October 2026
  • W2-1Nea Salamis10 October 2026

Krasava Ypsonas

1. Division

  • L1-3away to AEL7 November 2026
  • D2-2AEK Larnaca31 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Olympiakos24 October 2026
  • W2-1Karmiotissa17 October 2026
  • L1-3Apollon Limassol10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Apoel Nicosia went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Apoel Nicosia won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Apoel Nicosia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Krasava Ypsonas scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Krasava Ypsonas conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Krasava Ypsonas.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Cyprus 1. Division table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Apoel Nicosia95222111+1017
14Krasava Ypsonas9126920-115

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Apoel Nicosia

Chance to finish in the top six · 85% today

Win 87%
Draw 80%
Defeat 78%

Krasava Ypsonas

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 72% today

Win 58%
Draw 70%
Defeat 74%

From our 1. Division season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Apoel Nicosia vs Krasava Ypsonas

  • 13 December 2025Apoel Nicosia 0–0 Krasava Ypsonas1. Division
  • 24 August 2025Krasava Ypsonas 1–2 Apoel Nicosia1. Division

Leading scorers: Apoel Nicosia and Krasava Ypsonas

Apoel Nicosia

GoalsAssists

  • F. Pedrozo50
  • Marquinhos20
  • K. Stafylidis11

Krasava Ypsonas

GoalsAssists

  • S. Tabekou21
  • Yassine Bahassa11

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Apoel Nicosia a 5.3% chance of the title and Krasava Ypsonas 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Apoel Nicosia Krasava Ypsonas
0.9 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.6
1.21 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.67
2.44 Model expected goals (this match) 0.87

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Apoel Nicosia the highest probability at 66%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.44 expected goals for Apoel Nicosia against 0.87 for Krasava Ypsonas. Apoel Nicosia's attack/defence rating is 0.9/1.21 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.67 for Krasava Ypsonas.

Apoel Nicosia carry a model rating of 6.7 against 6.34 for Krasava Ypsonas.

How the model reaches 66% for Apoel Nicosia to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Apoel Nicosia to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Apoel Nicosia's ratings add 10 points and Krasava Ypsonas's ratings add 11 points, which lands on the published 66%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level45%+1
  4. Apoel Nicosia's ratings55%+10
  5. Krasava Ypsonas's ratings66%+11

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Apoel NicosiaKrasava Ypsonas
9Matches9
5W 2D 2LRecord1W 2D 6L
21 2.3 per gameGoals scored9 1.0 per game
11 1.2 per gameGoals conceded20 2.2 per game
2 of 9Clean sheets0 of 9
1 of 9Failed to score2 of 9
4 of 4Penalties scored2 of 3
19 2.1 per gameYellow cards26 2.9 per game
2Red cards1
4-2-3-1 8×Usual shape4-4-2 2×

Apoel Nicosia at home · Krasava Ypsonas away

4Played4
4W 0D 0LRecord0W 1D 3L
15–3Goals for – against4–10
1 of 4Clean sheets0 of 4

League matches only, 1. Division, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All 1. Division matches this season: Apoel Nicosia 9, Krasava Ypsonas 9.

Apoel Nicosia scored 333329
Krasava Ypsonas conceded 232319

Apoel Nicosia score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Krasava Ypsonas have let in 9 there.

Krasava Ypsonas scored 016011
Apoel Nicosia conceded 320112

Krasava Ypsonas score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Apoel Nicosia have let in 0 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Apoel Nicosia

  • at Karmiotissa2 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 55%
  • vs Olympiakos5 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 52%
  • vs AEK Larnaca12 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 34%
  • at AEL20 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 39%

Krasava Ypsonas

  • vs Nea Salamis3 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 38%
  • at Pafos6 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 13%
  • at Omonia 29is Maiou12 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 23%
  • vs Omonia Aradippou21 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 41%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.