Anorthosis
vs
Karmiotissa
1. Division prediction
Our model says: Anorthosis 1–0 Karmiotissa
The model makes it 52% Anorthosis, 28% draw, 20% Karmiotissa — fair odds of 1.92, 3.57 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Anorthosis 1.61, Karmiotissa 0.81.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
Edge to Anorthosis: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Anorthosis's rating is built from 42 Cypriot First Division matches and Karmiotissa's from 9, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Anorthosis are 11th on 6 points from 9 games; Karmiotissa are 12th on 6 points from 9 games — 1. Division.
- Anorthosis have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Omonia Nicosia.
- Karmiotissa have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat away to AEK Larnaca.
- Last 6 meetings: Anorthosis 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 3 December 2025, ended Karmiotissa 1–3 Anorthosis.
More Cypriot First Division predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Anorthosis vs Karmiotissa
Has the model earned this number?
Anorthosis at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Anorthosis vs Karmiotissa
Anorthosis
1. Division
- L0-2Omonia Nicosia8 November 2026
- L1-2away to Aris1 November 2026
- W2-0Omonia Aradippou24 October 2026
- L0-1away to Omonia 29is Maiou18 October 2026
- L1-3Pafos11 October 2026
Karmiotissa
1. Division
- L1-4away to AEK Larnaca6 November 2026
- W1-0Olympiakos30 October 2026
- L0-5Apollon Limassol25 October 2026
- L1-2away to Krasava Ypsonas17 October 2026
- L0-3Omonia Nicosia9 October 2026
What these results say
- Anorthosis failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Anorthosis conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Karmiotissa failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Karmiotissa conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Karmiotissa had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Cyprus 1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Anorthosis | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 6 |
| 12 | Karmiotissa | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 20 | -14 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Anorthosis
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 40% today
Karmiotissa
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 82% today
From our 1. Division season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Anorthosis vs Karmiotissa
- 3 December 2025Karmiotissa 1–3 AnorthosisCup
- 5 April 2025Karmiotissa 0–1 Anorthosis1. Division
- 28 February 2025Anorthosis 1–2 Karmiotissa1. Division
- 30 November 2024Karmiotissa 1–1 Anorthosis1. Division
- 2 January 2024Anorthosis 1–0 Karmiotissa1. Division
- 17 September 2023Karmiotissa 1–3 Anorthosis1. Division
Leading scorers: Anorthosis and Karmiotissa
Anorthosis
No player in 1. Division's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Karmiotissa
GoalsAssists
- Patrick Luan11
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Anorthosis the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Anorthosis against 0.81 for Karmiotissa. Anorthosis's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.38 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/1.8 for Karmiotissa.
How the model reaches 52% for Anorthosis to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Anorthosis to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Anorthosis's ratings add 4 points and Karmiotissa's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 52%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level42%−2
- Anorthosis's ratings46%+4
- Karmiotissa's ratings52%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Anorthosis at home · Karmiotissa away
League matches only, 1. Division, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Division matches this season: Anorthosis 9, Karmiotissa 9.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Anorthosis
- at Olympiakos2 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 21%
- vs AEK Larnaca7 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 20%
- vs AEL13 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 37%
- vs Apollon Limassol19 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 26%
Karmiotissa
- vs Apoel Nicosia2 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 20%
- at Nea Salamis8 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 17%
- at Pafos14 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 9%
- vs Omonia 29is Maiou19 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 31%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.