Regular Season - 16 · 28 November 2026, 12:30 UTC

HB Koge vs Aarhus Fremad 1. Division prediction

Capelli Sport Stadion, Koge

Our model says: HB Koge 1–0 Aarhus Fremad

The model makes it 39% HB Koge, 29% draw, 32% Aarhus Fremad — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: HB Koge 1.31, Aarhus Fremad 1.14.

Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. HB Koge's rating is built from 46 1. Division (Denmark) matches and Aarhus Fremad's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • HB Koge are 11th on 12 points from 14 games; Aarhus Fremad are 5th on 18 points from 14 games — 1. Division.
  • HB Koge are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Aalborg.
  • Aarhus Fremad have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Hvidovre.
  • Last 5 meetings: HB Koge 2 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 8 August 2026, ended Aarhus Fremad 3–1 HB Koge.

More 1. Division (Denmark) predictions

All 1. Division (Denmark) predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: HB Koge vs Aarhus Fremad

50%
Both teams to score
44%
Over 2.5 goals
56%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

HB Koge win Draw Aarhus Fremad win
  1. 1–114%
  2. 1–011%
  3. 0–09%
  4. 0–19%
  5. 2–18%
  6. 2–07%
  7. 1–27%

Scores read HB Koge first; the other scorelines share the remaining 34%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

HB Koge at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into HB Koge vs Aarhus Fremad

HB Koge

1. Division

  • D1-1Aalborg6 November 2026
  • L2-3away to Kolding IF31 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Hvidovre23 October 2026
  • L2-3AB Copenhagen16 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Vendsyssel FF11 October 2026

Aarhus Fremad

1. Division

  • L0-3away to Hvidovre9 November 2026
  • W2-0Hillerød1 November 2026
  • D0-0away to Vejle24 October 2026
  • D0-0Esbjerg16 October 2026
  • L0-2away to AB Copenhagen9 October 2026

What these results say

  • HB Koge scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • HB Koge failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • HB Koge conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Aarhus Fremad failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Aarhus Fremad failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Aarhus Fremad had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Denmark 1. Division table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11HB Koge142662026-612
5Aarhus Fremad144641214-218

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

HB Koge

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 60% today

Win 46%
Draw 64%
Defeat 73%

Aarhus Fremad

Chance to finish in the top six · 71% today

Win 84%
Draw 72%
Defeat 61%

From our 1. Division season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: HB Koge vs Aarhus Fremad

  • 8 August 2026Aarhus Fremad 3–1 HB Koge1. Division
  • 9 May 2026Aarhus Fremad 0–0 HB Koge1. Division
  • 6 April 2026HB Koge 2–0 Aarhus Fremad1. Division
  • 23 November 2025Aarhus Fremad 2–2 HB Koge1. Division
  • 25 July 2025HB Koge 2–1 Aarhus Fremad1. Division

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Aarhus Fremad (5th, with HB Koge 11th), while our numbers lean to HB Koge. HB Koge rate 0.54 in attack and 2.20 in defence, Aarhus Fremad 0.43 and 1.49 (lower is better in defence), so HB Koge have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 6-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

HB Koge Aarhus Fremad
0.54 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.43
2.2 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.49
1.31 Model expected goals (this match) 1.14

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives HB Koge the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.31 expected goals for HB Koge against 1.14 for Aarhus Fremad. HB Koge's attack/defence rating is 0.54/2.2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.43/1.49 for Aarhus Fremad.

HB Koge carry a model rating of 6.15 against 6.25 for Aarhus Fremad. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 39% for HB Koge to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for HB Koge to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, HB Koge's ratings take away 1 point and Aarhus Fremad's ratings take away 3 points, which lands on the published 39%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level43%−1
  4. HB Koge's ratings42%−1
  5. Aarhus Fremad's ratings39%−3

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

HB KogeAarhus Fremad
14Matches14
2W 6D 6LRecord4W 6D 4L
20 1.4 per gameGoals scored12 0.9 per game
26 1.9 per gameGoals conceded14 1.0 per game
2 of 14Clean sheets6 of 14
4 of 14Failed to score7 of 14
1 of 1Penalties scored–
19 1.4 per gameYellow cards22 1.6 per game

HB Koge at home · Aarhus Fremad away

7Played7
1W 3D 3LRecord1W 4D 2L
11–13Goals for – against3–7
0 of 7Clean sheets3 of 7

League matches only, 1. Division, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All 1. Division matches this season: HB Koge 14, Aarhus Fremad 14.

HB Koge scored 113652
Aarhus Fremad conceded 242123

HB Koge score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Aarhus Fremad have let in 1 there.

Aarhus Fremad scored 311241
HB Koge conceded 344962

Aarhus Fremad score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); HB Koge have let in 6 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

HB Koge

  • at Hillerød5 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 28%
  • vs Vendsyssel FF20 Feb · 1. Divisionwin 51%
  • at AB Copenhagen27 Feb · 1. Divisionwin 20%
  • vs FC Fredericia6 Mar · 1. Divisionwin 29%

Aarhus Fremad

  • vs AB Copenhagen4 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 37%
  • at Esbjerg20 Feb · 1. Divisionwin 31%
  • vs FC Fredericia27 Feb · 1. Divisionwin 31%
  • at Aalborg6 Mar · 1. Divisionwin 32%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.