AS Roma
vs
Atalanta
Serie A prediction
The model makes it 73% AS Roma, 16% draw, 11% Atalanta — fair odds of 1.37, 6.25 and 9.09. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (9%).
Expected goals: AS Roma 2.71, Atalanta 0.98.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: AS Roma vs Atalanta
- 18 April 2026AS Roma 1–1 AtalantaSerie A
- 3 January 2026Atalanta 1–0 AS RomaSerie A
- 12 May 2025Atalanta 2–1 AS RomaSerie A
- 2 December 2024AS Roma 0–2 AtalantaSerie A
- 12 May 2024Atalanta 2–1 AS RomaSerie A
- 7 January 2024AS Roma 1–1 AtalantaSerie A
The two sides
AS Roma carry a model rating of 7.3 against 6.95 for Atalanta. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Atalanta D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.71 goals for AS Roma and 0.98 for Atalanta. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
AS Roma rate 1.61 in attack and 0.65 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Atalanta rate 1.08 and 0.89.
That points to 71% for over two and a half goals and 59% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%), 3-0 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AS Roma the highest probability at 73%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.71 expected goals for AS Roma against 0.98 for Atalanta. AS Roma's attack/defence rating is 1.61/0.65 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.08/0.89 for Atalanta.