23 August 2026, 12:00 UTC

Aarhus vs Odense Superliga prediction & result

New Vejlby Stadium, Aarhus
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Aarhus 2-2 Odense.

Before kick-off the model made it 67% Aarhus, 18% draw, 15% Odense — fair odds of 1.49, 5.56 and 6.67.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Aarhus at 67%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Aarhus7%Draw90%Odense3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽J. Bogereassist: S. Jorgensen
21'
26'
⚽F. Arp
42'
⚽F. Arp
🔁J. Andersenout: L. Callo
46'
55'
R. Falk
🔁M. Solbakkenout: K. Arnstad
64'
🔁F. Emmeryout: R. Carstensen
64'
64'
🔁N. Ganausout: J. Grot
65'
P. Therkildsen
65'
🔁F. Arpout: A. Holmstrom
69'
J. Gomez
🔁J. Bogereout: J. Serra
72'
74'
🔁P. Therkildsenout: U. Jenssen
⚽R. Carstensenassist: M. Knudsen
75'
76'
I. Ouedraogo
🔁M. Camaraout: T. Molgaard
80'
82'
🔁C. Gammelgaardout: A. Sorensen
82'
🔁R. Falkout: J. Bonde
88'
T. Keskinen
90+2'
A. Holmstrom

Match stats — Aarhus vs Odense

71%Possession29%
31Shots6
5On target2
15Corners0
1.88xG0.81

Goals against chances

Aarhus2 from 1.88 xGabout what the chances were worth
Odense2 from 0.81 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Aarhus 3-4-2-1
  • 21Mads HedenstadG
  • 26Jacob AndersenD
  • 44Mouhammade CamaraD
  • 19Eric KahlD
  • 11Gift LinksM
  • 4Magnus KnudsenM
  • 7Markus SolbakkenM
  • 39Frederik EmmeryM
  • 8Sebastian JørgensenF
  • 31Tobias BechF
  • 28James BogereF
Substitutes
  • 33Luka CalløD
  • 29Rasmus CarstensenD
  • 10Kristian ArnstadM
  • 13Janni SerraF
  • 14Tobias MølgaardD
  • 1Jesper HansenG
  • 23Mikael AndersonM
  • 16Jens JønssonM
  • 27Stefen TchamcheF
Coach: Jakob Poulsen
Odense 4-2-3-1
  • 16Viljar MyhraG
  • 2Peter TherkildsenD
  • 13Julius Berthel AskouD
  • 29James GomezD
  • 15Marcus McCoyD
  • 22Ismahila OuédraogoM
  • 8Rasmus FalkM
  • 14Christian GammelgaardM
  • 7Fiete ArpM
  • 9Topi KeskinenM
  • 17Noah GanausF
Substitutes
  • 31Jay-Roy GrotF
  • 18Alexander Ahl HolmstromF
  • 5Ulrik JenssenD
  • 3Adam SørensenD
  • 6Jacob BondeM
  • 1Martin HansenG
  • 19Nikolaj Juul-SandbergM
  • 40Noah LassenM
  • 21Vitus FriisM
Coach: Martin Lanig

Form going into Aarhus vs Odense

Aarhus

All competitions we cover

  • L1-3away to Benfica20 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Viborg14 August 2026
  • L0-4away to Sabah FA11 August 2026
  • W2-1Sabah FA5 August 2026
  • D2-2away to Lyngby1 August 2026

Odense

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2AC Horsens16 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Silkeborg10 August 2026
  • W1-0Sonderjyske3 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Viborg24 July 2026

What these results say

  • Aarhus conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Aarhus had three goals or more.
  • Aarhus failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Odense failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Odense conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Odense had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Superliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Aarhus143651921-215
6Odense144551619-317

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Aarhus vs Odense

  • 9 February 2026Aarhus 2–1 OdenseSuperliga
  • 14 December 2025Aarhus 3–1 OdenseDBU Pokalen
  • 11 December 2025Odense 1–0 AarhusDBU Pokalen
  • 18 August 2025Odense 1–5 AarhusSuperliga
  • 16 January 2025Aarhus 4–1 OdenseFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Aarhus and Odense

Aarhus

GoalsAssists

  • J. Serra50

Odense

GoalsAssists

  • N. Ganaus40
  • J. Arp40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Aarhus and Odense drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Aarhus at 67% and given a draw 18%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 6 matches like this one. The goals: J. Bogere 21' for Aarhus, F. Arp 26' for Odense, F. Arp 42' for Odense, R. Carstensen 75' for Aarhus. On expected goals it finished 1.88–0.81.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.