20 September 2026, 14:00 UTC

AC Horsens vs Aarhus Superliga prediction & result

Hybel Arena Horsens, Horsens
Full time2 – 2

Final score: AC Horsens 2-2 Aarhus.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% AC Horsens, 30% draw, 33% Aarhus — fair odds of 2.70, 3.33 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts AC Horsens at 37% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

AC Horsens0%Draw4%Aarhus96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Adam Herdonsson
35'
58'
⚽Magnus Knudsenassist: Tobias Bech Kristensen
🔁Ole Martin Kolskogenout: Ivan Milićević
59'
🔁Adam Herdonssonout: Karlo Lusavec
59'
Alagie Saine
60'
61'
🔁Tobias Bech Kristensenout: Sebastian Jorgensen
🔁Yamirou Ouorouout: Kingsley Bimpong
66'
67'
🔁Frederik Emmeryout: Stefen Tchamche
67'
🔁Janni Serraout: Callum McCowatt
68'
⚽Callum McCowatt
🔁Adrian Justinussenout: Jakob Bonde Jensen
77'
🔁Abdul Moroout: Julius Körkkö
77'
84'
🔁Colin Roslerout: Jacob Andersen
84'
🔁Rasmus Carstensenout: Frederik Tingager
⚽Jakob Bonde Jensenassist: Victor Pálsson
89'
89'
Kristian Arnstad
⚽Ivan Milićević
90+4'
90+5'
Mikael Anderson

Match stats — AC Horsens vs Aarhus

53%Possession47%
20Shots14
5On target3
3Corners2

Line-ups

AC Horsens 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. DelačG
  • 26V. PálssonD
  • 24O. KolskogenD
  • 35M. KupijbidaD
  • 28A. SaineD
  • 16A. MoroM
  • 17A. HerdonssonM
  • 27Y. OuorouM
  • 14J. MadsenM
  • 15A. JustinussenM
  • 11K. EhibhatiomhanF
Substitutes
  • 22J. BatigiF
  • 41Kingsley BimpongF
  • 6J. BondeM
  • 30S. DouaD
  • 18J. KörkköF
  • 20K. LusavecM
  • 7I. MiličevićD
  • 31A. HoffG
  • 25Fallou SeneF
Coach: Niki Zimling
Aarhus 3-4-2-1
  • 21M. Hedenstad ChristiansenG
  • 14T. MølgaardD
  • 3D. GrétarssonD
  • 25C. RöslerD
  • 29R. CarstensenM
  • 4M. KnudsenM
  • 10Kristian Fredrik Malt ArnstadM
  • 39Frederik EmmeryM
  • 31T. BechM
  • 23M. AndersonM
  • 13J. SerraF
Substitutes
  • 16J. JønssonM
  • 18C. McCowattM
  • 27S. TchamcheF
  • 33Luka CalløD
  • 28J. BogereF
  • 5F. TingagerD
  • 26J. AndersenD
  • 8S. JørgensenM
  • 1J. HansenG
Coach: J. Poulsen

Form going into AC Horsens vs Aarhus

AC Horsens

Superliga

  • L0-2away to FC Copenhagen11 September 2026

Aarhus

Superliga

  • L0-2away to FC Nordsjaelland13 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Superliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6AC Horsens124442320+316
8Aarhus122641719-212

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: AC Horsens vs Aarhus

  • 15 July 2026Aarhus 2–0 AC HorsensFriendlies Clubs
  • 2 July 2025Aarhus 2–1 AC HorsensFriendlies Clubs
  • 30 June 2024AC Horsens 0–3 AarhusFriendlies Clubs
  • 8 July 2023Aarhus 2–1 AC HorsensFriendlies Clubs
  • 3 March 2023Aarhus 2–0 AC HorsensSuperliga

Leading scorers: AC Horsens and Aarhus

AC Horsens

GoalsAssists

  • K. Ehibhatiomhan40

Aarhus

GoalsAssists

  • J. Serra50
  • C. McCowatt32

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

AC Horsens and Aarhus drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for AC Horsens at 37% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Magnus Knudsen 58' for Aarhus, Callum McCowatt 68' for Aarhus, Jakob Bonde Jensen 89' for AC Horsens, Ivan Milićević 90+4' for AC Horsens.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.