Getafe
vs
FK Partizan
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
The model makes it 80% Getafe, 14% draw, 6% FK Partizan — fair odds of 1.25, 7.14 and 16.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Getafe 2.71, FK Partizan 0.67.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Getafe
No earlier matches on record this season.
FK Partizan
- L1-2IMT Novi Beograd2 August 2026
- W3-1away to Macva26 July 2026
- D2-2away to Zemun18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Domestic league positions
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | FK Partizan | Super Liga | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 4 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Getafe has not started the league season yet. Full tables
A clear gap in the ratings
Getafe carry a model rating of 6.88 against 6.3 for FK Partizan. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): FK Partizan D-W-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.71 goals for Getafe and 0.67 for FK Partizan. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Getafe rate 0.78 in attack and 0.78 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FK Partizan rate 0.61 and 1.84.
That points to 66% for over two and a half goals and 46% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-0 (13%), 3-0 (11%), 1-0 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 336 correct results out of 706 settled predictions (48%), with 66 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Getafe the highest probability at 80%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.71 expected goals for Getafe against 0.67 for FK Partizan. Getafe's attack/defence rating is 0.78/0.78 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.84 for FK Partizan.