23 August 2026, 12:00 UTC

HJK Helsinki vs Gnistan Finnish Premier League prediction & result

Bolt Arena, Helsinki
Full time2 – 3

Final score: HJK Helsinki 2-3 Gnistan.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% HJK Helsinki, 23% draw, 42% Gnistan — fair odds of 2.86, 4.35 and 2.38.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Gnistan at 42%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

HJK Helsinki0%Draw5%Gnistan95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽S. Haarala
23'
35'
🔁M. Jurickaout: O. Lyberopoulos
⚽V. Tikkanenassist: L. Montano
45'
46'
🔁G. Europaeusout: A. Atarah
Alexander Ring
55'
60'
🔁S. Ylatupaout: J. Latonen
67'
Bogdan Milovanov
68'
⚽A. Akinyemiassist: A. Atarah
Kaius Simojoki
70'
🔁K. Simojokiout: M. Ylitolva
71'
🔁A. Ringout: J. Kallinen
71'
🔁M. Kirilovout: T. Pukki
71'
76'
🔁R. Eremenkoout: D. Perez
78'
Edmund Arko-Mensah
83'
⚽A. Akinyemiassist: B. Milovanov
🔁S. Haaralaout: L. Moller
86'
🔁A. Cicaleout: L. Lappalainen
86'
89'
⚽D. Perez

Line-ups

HJK Helsinki 4-4-2
  • 44M. MarkovicG
  • 13K. SimojokiD
  • 6V. TikkanenD
  • 3T. CissokhoD
  • 14L. MontanoD
  • 29S. HaaralaF
  • 4A. RingM
  • 8P. MentuM
  • 7A. CicaleM
  • 9M. BorchersF
  • 17M. KirilovM
Substitutes
  • 1J. OstG
  • 28M. YlitolvaD
  • 5A. NalloD
  • 15J. KallinenM
  • 22L. MollerM
  • 32M. Gueye
  • 20T. PukkiF
  • 26L. LappalainenM
  • 21P. NdirF
Coach: Joonas Rantanen
Gnistan 3-4-2-1
  • 95M. JurickaG
  • 24R. GnanouD
  • 67A. ObileyeD
  • 3RuxiD
  • 19B. MilovanovD
  • 31A. JouhiM
  • 15G. EuropaeusM
  • 12E. Arko-MensahD
  • 23S. YlatupaM
  • 26R. EremenkoF
  • 17A. AkinyemiF
Substitutes
  • 13O. LyberopoulosG
  • 40J. OjalaD
  • 2B. DahlstromD
  • 27O. HannulaM
  • 14S. EremenkoM
  • 10J. LatonenF
  • 7A. AtarahF
  • 11D. PerezF
Coach: Jussi Leppalahti

Form going into HJK Helsinki vs Gnistan

HJK Helsinki

All competitions we cover

  • W3-0FF Jaro16 August 2026
  • L0-2away to Motherwell13 August 2026
  • W1-0away to AC Oulu9 August 2026
  • D1-1Motherwell6 August 2026
  • W3-0away to Coleraine FC30 July 2026

Gnistan

All competitions we cover

  • W3-2Ilves17 August 2026
  • D2-2away to SJK7 August 2026

What these results say

  • HJK Helsinki scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Finnish Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2HJK Helsinki3217876639+2759
5Gnistan321210105247+546

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: HJK Helsinki vs Gnistan

  • 18 April 2026Gnistan 0–3 HJK HelsinkiFinnish Premier League
  • 10 March 2026HJK Helsinki 3–0 GnistanFriendlies Clubs
  • 7 February 2026HJK Helsinki 3–1 GnistanLeague Cup
  • 3 November 2025Gnistan 2–2 HJK HelsinkiFinnish Premier League
  • 3 October 2025HJK Helsinki 2–3 GnistanFinnish Premier League

Leading scorers: HJK Helsinki and Gnistan

HJK Helsinki

GoalsAssists

  • M. Borchers173
  • T. Pukki46
  • S. Haarala42

Gnistan

GoalsAssists

  • A. Akinyemi50
  • A. Jouhi31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Gnistan won 3–2 at HJK Helsinki. The model had made a win for Gnistan its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: S. Haarala 23' for HJK Helsinki, V. Tikkanen 45' for HJK Helsinki, A. Akinyemi 68' for Gnistan, A. Akinyemi 83' for Gnistan, D. Perez 89' for Gnistan.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.