23 August 2026, 12:00 UTC

KuPS vs Mariehamn Finnish Premier League prediction & result

Vare Areena, Kuopio
Full time2 – 4

Final score: KuPS 2-4 Mariehamn.

Before kick-off the model made it 87% KuPS, 10% draw, 3% Mariehamn — fair odds of 1.15, 10.00 and 33.33.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

KuPS at 87%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

KuPS0%Draw1%Mariehamn99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Taneli Hämäläinen
3'
6'
⚽A. Larssonassist: J. Svedberg
⚽G. Engvall
11'
13'
Noah Nurmi
14'
⚽J. Svedberg
19'
Foster Gyamfi
42'
⚽L. Richtnerassist: J. Heyden
🔁Jorginhoout: C. Antwi
46'
🔁N. Kujasaloout: P. Pennanen
46'
🔁A. Heinonenout: T. Jyry
46'
46'
🔁A. Bergvikout: A. Huttunen
⚽P. Parzyszekassist: C. Antwi
59'
62'
⚽L. Richtnerassist: V. Widlund
🔁A. Puukkoout: S. Savolainen
65'
65'
🔁V. Widlundout: T. Jakobsen
🔁J. Luyeye-Lutumbaout: J. J. Moreno Ciorciari
71'
77'
🔁A. Larssonout: L. Andersson
89'
🔁S. Ngulubeout: T. Koivisto

Line-ups

KuPS
  • 1J. Kreidl
  • 29A. Puukko
  • 33T. Hamalainen
  • 23A. Lotjonen
  • 30Jorginho
  • 21J. Luyeye-Lutumba
  • 13N. Kujasalo
  • 22S. Touray
  • 9G. Engvall
  • 17A. Heinonen
  • 20P. Parzyszek
Substitutes
  • 12H. Riihimaki
  • 6S. Savolainen
  • 4K. Adams
  • 25C. Antwi
  • 8P. Pennanen
  • 16T. Jyry
  • 10V. R. Gasc
  • 14S. Pasanen
  • 11J. J. Moreno Ciorciari
Coach: Miika Nuutinen
Mariehamn
  • 1K. Lund
  • 27L. Richtner
  • 2N. Nurmi
  • 53F. Gyamfi
  • 31S. Ngulube
  • 23V. Widlund
  • 8J. Heyden
  • 20E. Patut
  • 14A. Bergvik
  • 7A. Larsson
  • 11J. Svedberg
Substitutes
  • 32M. Riikonen
  • 5T. Koivisto
  • 64M. Hyvonen
  • 43L. Andersson
  • 16A. Huttunen
  • 9W. Nunez
  • 19T. Jakobsen
Coach: Roberth Bjorknesjo

Form going into KuPS vs Mariehamn

KuPS

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to Shamrock Rovers20 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Lahti16 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Universitatea Craiova13 August 2026
  • D1-1Turku PS9 August 2026
  • D1-1Universitatea Craiova6 August 2026

Mariehamn

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0SJK15 August 2026
  • L0-2away to Ilves9 August 2026

What these results say

  • KuPS scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • KuPS conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for KuPS.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: KuPS vs Mariehamn

  • 16 May 2026Mariehamn 1–1 KuPSFinnish Premier League
  • 14 March 2026KuPS 2–0 MariehamnFriendlies Clubs
  • 18 June 2025Mariehamn 1–0 KuPSFinnish Premier League
  • 23 April 2025KuPS 4–1 MariehamnFinnish Premier League
  • 25 August 2024KuPS 3–0 MariehamnFinnish Premier League

Leading scorers: KuPS and Mariehamn

KuPS

GoalsAssists

  • J. Moreno71
  • B. Armah40
  • P. Pennanen33

Mariehamn

No leading scorers listed yet.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Mariehamn won 4–2 at KuPS. The model had leaned towards a win for KuPS at 87% and given a win for Mariehamn 3%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 33 matches like this one. The goals: A. Larsson 6' for Mariehamn, G. Engvall 11' for KuPS, J. Svedberg 14' for Mariehamn, L. Richtner 42' for Mariehamn, P. Parzyszek 59' for KuPS, L. Richtner 62' for Mariehamn.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.