23 August 2026, 12:00 UTC

KuPS vs Mariehamn Veikkausliiga prediction & result

Vare Areena, Kuopio
Full time2 – 4

Final score: KuPS 2-4 Mariehamn.

Before kick-off the model made it 87% KuPS, 10% draw, 3% Mariehamn — fair odds of 1.15, 10.00 and 33.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts KuPS at 87% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

KuPS0%Draw1%Mariehamn99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Taneli Hämäläinen
3'
6'
⚽A. Larssonassist: J. Svedberg
⚽G. Engvall
11'
13'
Noah Nurmi
14'
⚽J. Svedberg
19'
Foster Gyamfi
42'
⚽L. Richtnerassist: J. Heyden
🔁Jorginhoout: C. Antwi
46'
🔁N. Kujasaloout: P. Pennanen
46'
🔁A. Heinonenout: T. Jyry
46'
46'
🔁A. Bergvikout: A. Huttunen
⚽P. Parzyszekassist: C. Antwi
59'
62'
⚽L. Richtnerassist: V. Widlund
🔁A. Puukkoout: S. Savolainen
65'
65'
🔁V. Widlundout: T. Jakobsen
🔁J. Luyeye-Lutumbaout: J. J. Moreno Ciorciari
71'
77'
🔁A. Larssonout: L. Andersson
89'
🔁S. Ngulubeout: T. Koivisto

Line-ups

KuPS
  • 1J. Kreidl
  • 29A. Puukko
  • 33T. Hamalainen
  • 23A. Lotjonen
  • 30Jorginho
  • 21J. Luyeye-Lutumba
  • 13N. Kujasalo
  • 22S. Touray
  • 9G. Engvall
  • 17A. Heinonen
  • 20P. Parzyszek
Substitutes
  • 12H. Riihimaki
  • 6S. Savolainen
  • 4K. Adams
  • 25C. Antwi
  • 8P. Pennanen
  • 16T. Jyry
  • 10V. R. Gasc
  • 14S. Pasanen
  • 11J. J. Moreno Ciorciari
Coach: Miika Nuutinen
Mariehamn
  • 1K. Lund
  • 27L. Richtner
  • 2N. Nurmi
  • 53F. Gyamfi
  • 31S. Ngulube
  • 23V. Widlund
  • 8J. Heyden
  • 20E. Patut
  • 14A. Bergvik
  • 7A. Larsson
  • 11J. Svedberg
Substitutes
  • 32M. Riikonen
  • 5T. Koivisto
  • 64M. Hyvonen
  • 43L. Andersson
  • 16A. Huttunen
  • 9W. Nunez
  • 19T. Jakobsen
Coach: Roberth Bjorknesjo

Form going into KuPS vs Mariehamn

KuPS

  • D1-1away to Shamrock Rovers20 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Lahti16 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Universitatea Craiova13 August 2026
  • D1-1Turku PS9 August 2026
  • D1-1Universitatea Craiova6 August 2026

Mariehamn

  • W2-0SJK15 August 2026
  • L0-2away to Ilves9 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: KuPS vs Mariehamn

  • 23 August 2026KuPS 2–4 MariehamnVeikkausliiga
  • 16 May 2026Mariehamn 1–1 KuPSVeikkausliiga
  • 14 March 2026KuPS 2–0 MariehamnFriendlies Clubs
  • 18 June 2025Mariehamn 1–0 KuPSVeikkausliiga
  • 23 April 2025KuPS 4–1 MariehamnVeikkausliiga
  • 25 August 2024KuPS 3–0 MariehamnVeikkausliiga

Leading scorers: KuPS and Mariehamn

KuPS

  • J. Moreno5 goals
  • J. Luyeye-Lutumba3 goals1 assists
  • B. Armah3 goals

Mariehamn

No leading scorers listed yet.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.