KuPS
vs
Mariehamn
Veikkausliiga prediction
The model makes it 88% KuPS, 9% draw, 3% Mariehamn — fair odds of 1.14, 11.11 and 33.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0 (15%).
Expected goals: KuPS 3.06, Mariehamn 0.43.
Both teams to score: 34%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
KuPS
- D1-1Turku PS9 August 2026
- W1-0away to Gnistan1 August 2026
- W3-1VPS25 July 2026
- W2-0away to SJK18 July 2026
- W4-0away to HJK Helsinki27 June 2026
Mariehamn
- L0-2away to Ilves9 August 2026
- L0-3away to Turku PS1 August 2026
- D1-1AC Oulu25 July 2026
- L0-2Lahti20 July 2026
- L2-4away to Gnistan11 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Veikkausliiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KuPS | 19 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 34 | 17 | +17 | 40 |
| 12 | Mariehamn | 18 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 9 | 39 | -30 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
KuPS
- J. Moreno5 goals
- B. Armah3 goals
Mariehamn
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
KuPS carry a model rating of 6.55 against 5.7 for Mariehamn. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): KuPS W-W-W-W-D; Mariehamn L-L-D-L-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.06 goals for KuPS and 0.43 for Mariehamn. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
KuPS rate 0.57 in attack and 1.10 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Mariehamn rate 0.28 and 2.84.
That points to 68% for over two and a half goals and 34% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 3-0 (15%), 2-0 (14%), 4-0 (11%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives KuPS a 97.6% chance of the title and Mariehamn 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives KuPS the highest probability at 88%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.06 expected goals for KuPS against 0.43 for Mariehamn. KuPS's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.28/2.84 for Mariehamn.