FF Jaro
vs
AC Oulu
Veikkausliiga prediction
The model makes it 30% FF Jaro, 18% draw, 52% AC Oulu — fair odds of 3.33, 5.56 and 1.92. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-3.
Expected goals: FF Jaro 2.26, AC Oulu 2.88.
Both teams to score: 85%. Over 2.5 goals: 89%, under 2.5: 11%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
FF Jaro
- L1-3VPS8 August 2026
- L0-2away to Lahti1 August 2026
- W2-1SJK24 July 2026
- D0-0Inter Turku19 July 2026
- W2-1Ilves4 July 2026
AC Oulu
- W1-0Ilves2 August 2026
- D1-1away to Mariehamn25 July 2026
- L0-2Gnistan18 July 2026
- L0-3away to Turku PS11 July 2026
- D1-1Lahti27 June 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Veikkausliiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | FF Jaro | 19 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 38 | -20 | 15 |
| 4 | AC Oulu | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 22 | 21 | +1 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
FF Jaro
- H. Sjögrell5 goals1 assists
AC Oulu
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
FF Jaro carry a model rating of 5.96 against 6.34 for AC Oulu. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): FF Jaro W-D-W-L-L; AC Oulu D-L-L-D-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.26 goals for FF Jaro and 2.88 for AC Oulu. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FF Jaro rate 0.39 in attack and 2.34 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; AC Oulu rate 0.88 and 3.06.
That points to 89% for over two and a half goals and 85% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-2 (6%), 2-3 (6%), 1-2 (6%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FF Jaro a 0% chance of the title and AC Oulu 0.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AC Oulu the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.26 expected goals for FF Jaro against 2.88 for AC Oulu. FF Jaro's attack/defence rating is 0.39/2.34 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.88/3.06 for AC Oulu.