22 August 2026, 14:00 UTC

Ilves vs VPS Finnish Premier League prediction & result

Tammelan Stadion, Tampere
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Ilves 0-1 VPS.

Before kick-off the model made it 65% Ilves, 17% draw, 18% VPS — fair odds of 1.54, 5.88 and 5.56.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Ilves at 65%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Ilves0%Draw8%VPS92%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

9'
⚽S. Lindholmassist: K. Kouassivi-Benissan
J. Kanga
38'
🔁L. Ala-Myllymakiout: M. Stjopin
46'
🔁J. Kiloout: J. Veteli
46'
O. Pettersson
67'
69'
Y. Daoussi
71'
🔁A. Raisanenout: D. Terrnava
🔁A. Popovitchout: E. Tamminen
76'
🔁G. Bambaout: S. Baranov
76'
🔁T. Miettunenout: H. Coulibaly
81'
81'
🔁Y. Daoussiout: R. Simpson
81'
🔁S. Lindholmout: C. Holmelund
90'
P. Lima

Line-ups

Ilves 3-4-2-1
  • 12Faris KrkalićG
  • 4Oliver PetterssonD
  • 16Tatu MiettunenD
  • 3Matias RaleD
  • 19Abdoul Goudouss BambaD
  • 15Lauri Ala-MyllymäkiM
  • 14Anton PopovitchM
  • 13Kalle WalliusM
  • 30Jardell KangaM
  • 28Jesse KiloM
  • 9Teemu HytönenF
Substitutes
  • 7Joona VeteliM
  • 8Maksim StjopinM
  • 1Otso VirtanenG
  • 6Yiandro RaapD
  • 24Ville KumpuD
  • 17Stanislav BaranovM
  • 33Yacouba SackoM
  • 11Hamidou CoulibalyF
  • 45Elias TamminenF
Coach: Camilo Speranza
VPS 3-4-2-1
  • 41Mamadou JallohG
  • 23Miika NiemiD
  • 2Lassana ManéD
  • 19Martti HaukiojaD
  • 13Oluwaseyi OgunniyiD
  • 34Antti-Ville RäisänenM
  • 8Paulo LimaM
  • 7Jayden TurfkruierM
  • 24Yassin DaoussiM
  • 27Kevin Kouassivi-BenissanM
  • 14Simon LindholmM
Substitutes
  • 12Lucas VäyrynenG
  • 3Razak SimpsonD
  • 21Arnold Adu-BoahenD
  • 17Dren TerrnavaM
  • 25Henri SalomaaM
  • 30Joonas VahteraM
  • 9Casper HolmelundF
  • 20Xavier OdhiamboF
  • 29Wilson SamakéF
Coach: Jussi Nuorela

Form going into Ilves vs VPS

Ilves

All competitions we cover

  • L2-3away to Gnistan17 August 2026
  • D1-1HNK Rijeka13 August 2026
  • W2-0Mariehamn9 August 2026
  • L0-1away to HNK Rijeka6 August 2026
  • W1-0Stjarnan30 July 2026

VPS

All competitions we cover

  • L1-3Turku PS14 August 2026
  • W3-1away to FF Jaro8 August 2026

What these results say

  • Ilves scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Ilves had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Ilves vs VPS

  • 24 April 2026VPS 3–2 IlvesFinnish Premier League
  • 7 February 2026VPS 1–2 IlvesLeague Cup
  • 14 July 2025Ilves 3–2 VPSFinnish Premier League
  • 2 May 2025VPS 1–0 IlvesFinnish Premier League
  • 15 February 2025Ilves 1–0 VPSLeague Cup
  • 4 October 2024VPS 0–2 IlvesFinnish Premier League

Leading scorers: Ilves and VPS

Ilves

GoalsAssists

  • T. Hytönen91
  • J. Kanga43
  • E. Tamminen42

VPS

GoalsAssists

  • L. Smyth50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

VPS won 1–0 at Ilves. The model had leaned towards a win for Ilves at 65% and given a win for VPS 18%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 6 matches like this one. The goal: S. Lindholm 9' for VPS.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.