Ilves
vs
VPS
Veikkausliiga prediction
The model makes it 82% Ilves, 11% draw, 7% VPS — fair odds of 1.22, 9.09 and 14.29. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0 (9%).
Expected goals: Ilves 3.23, VPS 0.91.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 78%, under 2.5: 22%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Ilves
- W2-0Mariehamn9 August 2026
- L0-1away to AC Oulu2 August 2026
- W1-0Lahti26 July 2026
- W3-1away to Turku PS20 July 2026
- L1-2away to FF Jaro4 July 2026
VPS
- W3-1away to FF Jaro8 August 2026
- L0-1Inter Turku2 August 2026
- L1-3away to KuPS25 July 2026
- L1-2away to HJK Helsinki18 July 2026
- W1-0SJK10 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Veikkausliiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Ilves | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 29 | 31 | -2 | 22 |
| 3 | VPS | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 27 | 18 | +9 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Ilves
- J. Kanga4 goals3 assists
- T. Hytönen4 goals
VPS
- L. Smyth5 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Ilves carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.09 for VPS. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Ilves L-W-W-L-W; VPS W-L-L-L-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.23 goals for Ilves and 0.91 for VPS. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ilves rate 0.88 in attack and 1.54 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; VPS rate 0.42 and 1.94.
That points to 78% for over two and a half goals and 57% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 3-0 (9%), 2-0 (8%), 3-1 (8%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour VPS, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ilves the highest probability at 82%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.23 expected goals for Ilves against 0.91 for VPS. Ilves's attack/defence rating is 0.88/1.54 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.42/1.94 for VPS.