Turku PS
vs
Inter Turku
Veikkausliiga prediction
The model makes it 44% Turku PS, 35% draw, 21% Inter Turku — fair odds of 2.27, 2.86 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Turku PS 1.01, Inter Turku 0.60.
Both teams to score: 29%. Over 2.5 goals: 22%, under 2.5: 78%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Turku PS
- W3-1away to VPS14 August 2026
- D1-1away to KuPS9 August 2026
- W3-0Mariehamn1 August 2026
- L0-1away to HJK Helsinki26 July 2026
- L1-3Ilves20 July 2026
Inter Turku
- D0-0Lahti9 August 2026
- W1-0away to VPS2 August 2026
- L1-2Gnistan26 July 2026
- D0-0away to FF Jaro19 July 2026
- W2-0away to Mariehamn27 June 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Veikkausliiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Turku PS | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 27 | 22 | +5 | 29 |
| 2 | Inter Turku | 19 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 25 | 14 | +11 | 35 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Turku PS vs Inter Turku
- 23 May 2026Inter Turku 2–1 Turku PSVeikkausliiga
- 7 February 2026Turku PS 0–3 Inter TurkuLeague Cup
- 3 July 2024Inter Turku 3–2 Turku PSSuomen Cup
- 22 October 2020Inter Turku 3–0 Turku PSVeikkausliiga
- 22 August 2020Turku PS 1–0 Inter TurkuVeikkausliiga
- 29 February 2020Inter Turku 1–0 Turku PSSuomen Cup
Leading scorers
Turku PS
- A. Muzaci3 goals
Inter Turku
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Turku PS carry a model rating of 6.32 against 6.3 for Inter Turku. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Turku PS L-L-W-D-W; Inter Turku W-D-L-W-D.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.01 goals for Turku PS and 0.60 for Inter Turku. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Turku PS rate 0.45 in attack and 1.38 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Inter Turku rate 0.31 and 1.19.
That points to 22% for over two and a half goals and 29% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 0-0 (21%), 1-0 (20%), 1-1 (13%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Inter Turku, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Turku PS a 0% chance of the title and Inter Turku 5.3%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 400 correct results out of 828 settled predictions (48%), with 78 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Turku PS the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Turku PS against 0.6 for Inter Turku. Turku PS's attack/defence rating is 0.45/1.38 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.31/1.19 for Inter Turku.