Heerenveen
vs
NEC Nijmegen
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: Heerenveen 2–1 NEC Nijmegen
The model makes it 45% Heerenveen, 26% draw, 29% NEC Nijmegen — fair odds of 2.22, 3.85 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Heerenveen 1.77, NEC Nijmegen 1.32.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Heerenveen are 8th on 12 points from 9 games; NEC Nijmegen are 11th on 9 points from 8 games — Eredivisie.
- Heerenveen have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-0 win at home to Excelsior.
- NEC Nijmegen have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Ajax.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 22 March 2026, ended NEC Nijmegen 2–2 Heerenveen.
More Eredivisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Heerenveen at 45% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen
Heerenveen
- W4-0Excelsior16 October 2026
- L0-2away to PSV Eindhoven9 October 2026
- W4-0away to Sparta Rotterdam19 September 2026
- D0-0Telstar13 September 2026
- L2-3AZ Alkmaar6 September 2026
NEC Nijmegen
- D1-1away to Ajax10 October 2026
- D1-1GO Ahead Eagles20 September 2026
- L0-3away to Cambuur12 September 2026
- D2-2Excelsior8 September 2026
- L1-3Feyenoord5 September 2026
What these results say
- NEC Nijmegen did not win any of these 5 matches.
- NEC Nijmegen conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- NEC Nijmegen scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Heerenveen | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 12 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen
- 22 March 2026NEC Nijmegen 2–2 HeerenveenEredivisie
- 21 September 2025Heerenveen 3–2 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
- 27 April 2025Heerenveen 1–0 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
- 19 October 2024NEC Nijmegen 3–0 HeerenveenEredivisie
- 10 March 2024NEC Nijmegen 2–0 HeerenveenEredivisie
- 7 October 2023Heerenveen 1–1 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
Leading scorers: Heerenveen and NEC Nijmegen
Heerenveen
GoalsAssists
- J. Trenskow42
NEC Nijmegen
GoalsAssists
- T. Chery42
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Heerenveen carry a model rating of 6.77 against 6.74 for NEC Nijmegen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.77 goals for Heerenveen and 1.32 for NEC Nijmegen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Heerenveen rate 0.85 in attack and 1.00 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; NEC Nijmegen rate 0.90 and 1.13.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Heerenveen a 0.1% chance of the title and NEC Nijmegen 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Heerenveen the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Heerenveen against 1.32 for NEC Nijmegen. Heerenveen's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.9/1.13 for NEC Nijmegen.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Heerenveen at home · NEC Nijmegen away
League matches only, Eredivisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eredivisie matches this season: Heerenveen 9, NEC Nijmegen 8.
Heerenveen score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); NEC Nijmegen have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Heerenveen
- vs Feyenoord8 Nov · Eredivisiewin 27%
- at Groningen21 Nov · Eredivisiewin 30%
- at Fortuna Sittard29 Nov · Eredivisiewin 38%
- vs Cambuur6 Dec · Eredivisiewin 59%
NEC Nijmegen
- vs Omonia Nicosia5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 28%
- at Utrecht8 Nov · Eredivisiewin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.