Heart of Midlothian
vs
FC Nordsjaelland
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
Our model says: Heart of Midlothian 1–0 FC Nordsjaelland
The model makes it 39% Heart of Midlothian, 29% draw, 32% FC Nordsjaelland — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Heart of Midlothian 1.46, FC Nordsjaelland 1.21.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Heart of Midlothian are 3rd in Premiership on 13 points from 7 games; FC Nordsjaelland are 4th in Superliga on 17 points from 9 games.
- Heart of Midlothian have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Kilmarnock.
- FC Nordsjaelland have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 1-4 defeat away to Viborg.
All Conference League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Heart of Midlothian vs FC Nordsjaelland
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Heart of Midlothian at 39% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Heart of Midlothian vs FC Nordsjaelland
Heart of Midlothian
- D1-1away to Kilmarnock19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Falkirk15 September 2026
- W2-1Dundee6 September 2026
- W3-1away to Hibernian3 September 2026
- W2-1St Johnstone29 August 2026
FC Nordsjaelland
- L1-4away to Viborg20 September 2026
- W2-0Aarhus13 September 2026
- D2-2away to FC Midtjylland7 September 2026
- L0-2away to FC Copenhagen3 September 2026
- W3-1Brondby30 August 2026
What these results say
- Heart of Midlothian scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Heart of Midlothian conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Heart of Midlothian.
- FC Nordsjaelland scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Nordsjaelland conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Heart of Midlothian and FC Nordsjaelland in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Heart of Midlothian | Premiership | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 13 |
| 4 | FC Nordsjaelland | Superliga | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 17 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Premiership · Superliga
Leading scorers: Heart of Midlothian and FC Nordsjaelland
Heart of Midlothian
- J. Wilson3 goals
- J. McPake2 goals4 assists
- Cláudio Braga2 goals2 assists
FC Nordsjaelland
- A. Lind3 goals1 assist
- H. Boe Rasmussen3 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Heart of Midlothian carry a model rating of 6.6 against 6.7 for FC Nordsjaelland. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.46 goals for Heart of Midlothian and 1.21 for FC Nordsjaelland. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Heart of Midlothian rate 0.79 in attack and 1.29 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Nordsjaelland rate 0.78 and 1.07.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Heart of Midlothian the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Heart of Midlothian against 1.21 for FC Nordsjaelland. Heart of Midlothian's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.07 for FC Nordsjaelland.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Heart of Midlothian at home · FC Nordsjaelland away
League matches only, this season — Heart of Midlothian in the Premiership, FC Nordsjaelland in the Superliga. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Heart of Midlothian 7 in the Premiership, FC Nordsjaelland 9 in the Superliga.
Heart of Midlothian score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); FC Nordsjaelland have let in 1 there.
FC Nordsjaelland score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Heart of Midlothian have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Heart of Midlothian
- at Celtic18 Oct · Premiershipwin 25%
- at Trabzonspor22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 20%
- at Motherwell25 Oct · Premiershipwin 37%
- vs Rangers28 Oct · Premiershipwin 37%
FC Nordsjaelland
- at Lyngby18 Oct · Superligawin 44%
- vs CSKA Sofia22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 44%
- at Silkeborg25 Oct · Superligawin 42%
- vs FC Midtjylland1 Nov · Superligawin 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.