SC Freiburg
vs
FK Jablonec
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
Our model says: SC Freiburg 2–0 FK Jablonec
The model makes it 61% SC Freiburg, 23% draw, 16% FK Jablonec — fair odds of 1.64, 4.35 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: SC Freiburg 2.52, FK Jablonec 0.77.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Key facts
- SC Freiburg are 3rd in Bundesliga on 10 points from 4 games; FK Jablonec are 8th in Czech Liga on 14 points from 9 games.
- SC Freiburg are unbeaten in their last 4 (3 won), most recently a 2-2 draw away to Eintracht Frankfurt.
- FK Jablonec have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Zlin.
All Conference League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: SC Freiburg vs FK Jablonec
Has the model earned this number?
It puts SC Freiburg at 61% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into SC Freiburg vs FK Jablonec
SC Freiburg
- D2-2away to Eintracht Frankfurt19 September 2026
- W5-0Borussia Mönchengladbach12 September 2026
- W1-0away to SC Paderborn 075 September 2026
- W4-1Werder Bremen30 August 2026
FK Jablonec
- D1-1Zlin20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Sparta Praha12 September 2026
- W3-0Baník Ostrava9 September 2026
- L1-2Slovan Liberec6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Bohemians 19052 September 2026
What these results say
- SC Freiburg went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- SC Freiburg scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- SC Freiburg won 3 of these 4 matches.
- FK Jablonec failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- FK Jablonec scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FK Jablonec conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
SC Freiburg and FK Jablonec in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 3 | +9 | 10 |
| 8 | FK Jablonec | Czech Liga | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 14 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Bundesliga · Czech Liga
Leading scorers: SC Freiburg and FK Jablonec
SC Freiburg
- Y. Suzuki4 goals
- I. Matanović3 goals1 assist
FK Jablonec
No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
SC Freiburg carry a model rating of 7.02 against 6.61 for FK Jablonec. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.52 goals for SC Freiburg and 0.77 for FK Jablonec. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
SC Freiburg rate 1.21 in attack and 0.86 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FK Jablonec rate 0.74 and 1.21.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives SC Freiburg the highest probability at 61%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.52 expected goals for SC Freiburg against 0.77 for FK Jablonec. SC Freiburg's attack/defence rating is 1.21/0.86 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.21 for FK Jablonec.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
SC Freiburg at home · FK Jablonec away
League matches only, this season — SC Freiburg in the Bundesliga, FK Jablonec in the Czech Liga. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: SC Freiburg 4 in the Bundesliga, FK Jablonec 9 in the Czech Liga.
SC Freiburg score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); FK Jablonec have let in 2 there.
FK Jablonec score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); SC Freiburg have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
SC Freiburg
- at Bayer Leverkusen18 Oct · Bundesligawin 30%
- at Monaco22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 29%
- vs Bayern München25 Oct · Bundesligawin 27%
- at FC Augsburg31 Oct · Bundesligawin 40%
FK Jablonec
- vs Plzen18 Oct · Czech Ligawin 30%
- vs Brighton22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 24%
- at Hradec Králové25 Oct · Czech Ligawin 28%
- vs Slavia Praha31 Oct · Czech Ligawin 20%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.