Gent
vs
Aarhus
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
Our model says: Gent 2–0 Aarhus
The model makes it 55% Gent, 26% draw, 19% Aarhus — fair odds of 1.82, 3.85 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Gent 2.11, Aarhus 0.77.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Gent are 2nd in Jupiler Pro League on 19 points from 7 games; Aarhus are 11th in Superliga on 5 points from 9 games.
- Gent are unbeaten in their last 5 (4 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to Standard Liege.
- Aarhus have not won in their last 5, most recently a 2-2 draw away to AC Horsens.
All Conference League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Gent vs Aarhus
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Gent at 55% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Gent vs Aarhus
Gent
- W2-1Standard Liege18 September 2026
- D1-1away to Genk13 September 2026
- W3-0away to Cercle Brugge6 September 2026
- W1-0OH Leuven3 September 2026
- W2-1Club Brugge KV30 August 2026
Aarhus
- D2-2away to AC Horsens20 September 2026
- L0-2away to FC Nordsjaelland13 September 2026
- D2-2Silkeborg5 September 2026
- L0-2FC Midtjylland2 September 2026
- L1-2away to Randers FC30 August 2026
What these results say
- Gent went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Gent scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Gent won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Aarhus did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Aarhus conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Gent and Aarhus in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Gent | Jupiler Pro League | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 4 | +9 | 19 |
| 11 | Aarhus | Superliga | 9 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 5 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Jupiler Pro League · Superliga
Leading scorers: Gent and Aarhus
Gent
- J. Y. Vergara Ortega3 goals
Aarhus
- C. McCowatt3 goals2 assists
- J. Serra3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Gent carry a model rating of 6.93 against 6.6 for Aarhus. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.11 goals for Gent and 0.77 for Aarhus. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gent rate 0.95 in attack and 0.82 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Aarhus rate 0.78 and 1.29.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gent the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Gent against 0.77 for Aarhus. Gent's attack/defence rating is 0.95/0.82 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.29 for Aarhus.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Gent at home · Aarhus away
League matches only, this season — Gent in the Jupiler Pro League, Aarhus in the Superliga. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Gent 7 in the Jupiler Pro League, Aarhus 9 in the Superliga.
Aarhus score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Gent have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Gent
- at SC Braga22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 26%
- vs Anderlecht25 Oct · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 44%
- at Lommel United1 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 35%
- at KuPS5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 47%
Aarhus
- at FC Copenhagen18 Oct · Superligawin 24%
- vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 59%
- vs Viborg25 Oct · Superligawin 37%
- at Brondby1 Nov · Superligawin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.