KuPS
vs
Trabzonspor
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
Our model says: KuPS 1–2 Trabzonspor
The model makes it 26% KuPS, 27% draw, 47% Trabzonspor — fair odds of 3.85, 3.70 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: KuPS 1.09, Trabzonspor 1.88.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- KuPS are top in Veikkausliiga, Championship Group on 48 points from 25 games; Trabzonspor are 7th in Süper Lig on 10 points from 6 games.
- KuPS are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 2-0 win away to VPS.
- Trabzonspor have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 4-0 win at home to Galatasaray.
All Conference League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: KuPS vs Trabzonspor
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Trabzonspor at 47% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into KuPS vs Trabzonspor
KuPS
- W2-0away to VPS19 September 2026
- D0-0HJK Helsinki13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Gnistan8 September 2026
- L0-1away to Inter Turku31 August 2026
- L2-4Mariehamn23 August 2026
Trabzonspor
- W4-0Galatasaray19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Konyaspor12 September 2026
- W5-0Gençlerbirliği S.K.6 September 2026
- L1-2away to Amed31 August 2026
- W2-1Başakşehir23 August 2026
What these results say
- KuPS failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for KuPS had two goals or fewer.
- Trabzonspor scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Trabzonspor had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
KuPS and Trabzonspor in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KuPS | Veikkausliiga | 25 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 41 | 24 | +17 | 48 |
| 7 | Trabzonspor | Süper Lig | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 10 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Veikkausliiga · Süper Lig
Leading scorers: KuPS and Trabzonspor
KuPS
- J. Moreno5 goals
- J. Luyeye-Lutumba3 goals1 assist
- B. Armah3 goals
Trabzonspor
- Mohamed Salah7 goals2 assists
- P. Onuachu2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
KuPS carry a model rating of 6.43 against 6.88 for Trabzonspor. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.09 goals for KuPS and 1.88 for Trabzonspor. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
KuPS rate 0.65 in attack and 1.50 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Trabzonspor rate 1.04 and 0.97.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Trabzonspor the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.09 expected goals for KuPS against 1.88 for Trabzonspor. KuPS's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.5 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.04/0.97 for Trabzonspor.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
KuPS at home · Trabzonspor away
League matches only, this season — KuPS in the Veikkausliiga, Trabzonspor in the Süper Lig. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: KuPS 25 in the Veikkausliiga, Trabzonspor 6 in the Süper Lig.
KuPS score most often in the 31–45 minute window (12 goals); Trabzonspor have let in 1 there.
Trabzonspor score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); KuPS have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
KuPS
- vs VPS18 Oct · Veikkausliigawin 49%
- at Borac Banja Luka22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 24%
- at HJK Helsinki25 Oct · Veikkausliigawin 38%
Trabzonspor
- vs Beşiktaş19 Oct · Süper Ligwin 40%
- vs Heart of Midlothian22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 55%
- at Rizespor26 Oct · Süper Ligwin 41%
- vs Gaziantep FK1 Nov · Süper Ligwin 55%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.