FC Lugano
vs
FK Crvena Zvezda
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
Our model says: FC Lugano 1–0 FK Crvena Zvezda
The model makes it 45% FC Lugano, 30% draw, 25% FK Crvena Zvezda — fair odds of 2.22, 3.33 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: FC Lugano 1.52, FK Crvena Zvezda 0.88.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- FC Lugano are top in Super League on 25 points from 9 games; FK Crvena Zvezda are top in Super Liga on 28 points from 10 games.
- FC Lugano are unbeaten in their last 5 (4 won), most recently a 4-0 win away to Lausanne.
- FK Crvena Zvezda are unbeaten in their last 5 (4 won), most recently a 3-0 win at home to Radnicki NIS.
All Conference League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Lugano at 45% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda
FC Lugano
- W4-0away to Lausanne20 September 2026
- W4-1FC St. Gallen16 September 2026
- D2-2BSC Young Boys12 September 2026
- W3-1away to FC Basel 18936 September 2026
- W1-0Servette FC3 September 2026
FK Crvena Zvezda
- W3-0Radnicki NIS20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Železničar Pančevo17 September 2026
- W1-0away to IMT Novi Beograd13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Radnik Surdulica10 September 2026
- W2-1FK Partizan6 September 2026
What these results say
- FC Lugano went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- FC Lugano scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Lugano won 4 of these 5 matches.
- FK Crvena Zvezda went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- FK Crvena Zvezda won 4 of these 5 matches.
- FK Crvena Zvezda scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
FC Lugano and FK Crvena Zvezda in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Lugano | Super League | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 27 | 7 | +20 | 25 |
| 1 | FK Crvena Zvezda | Super Liga | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 3 | +21 | 28 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Super League · Super Liga
Leading scorers: FC Lugano and FK Crvena Zvezda
FC Lugano
- D. Moncada3 goals1 assist
- H. Delcroix3 goals1 assist
FK Crvena Zvezda
- V. Kostov4 goals1 assist
- M. Abu Fani2 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Lugano carry a model rating of 6.88 against 6.77 for FK Crvena Zvezda. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.52 goals for FC Lugano and 0.88 for FK Crvena Zvezda. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Lugano rate 0.85 in attack and 0.82 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FK Crvena Zvezda rate 0.89 and 1.04.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Lugano the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for FC Lugano against 0.88 for FK Crvena Zvezda. FC Lugano's attack/defence rating is 0.85/0.82 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.89/1.04 for FK Crvena Zvezda.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Lugano at home · FK Crvena Zvezda away
League matches only, this season — FC Lugano in the Super League, FK Crvena Zvezda in the Super Liga. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: FC Lugano 9 in the Super League, FK Crvena Zvezda 10 in the Super Liga.
FC Lugano score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); FK Crvena Zvezda have let in 0 there.
FK Crvena Zvezda score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); FC Lugano have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
FC Lugano
- at Getafe22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 31%
- at FC Thun25 Oct · Super Leaguewin 49%
- vs FC Basel 18931 Nov · Super Leaguewin 57%
- vs Kauno Žalgiris5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 64%
FK Crvena Zvezda
- vs Mladost Lucani17 Oct · Super Ligawin 65%
- vs FC Copenhagen22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 40%
- at OFK Beograd24 Oct · Super Ligawin 55%
- at Macva1 Nov · Super Ligawin 59%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.