HNK Hajduk Split
vs
Ajax
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
Our model says: HNK Hajduk Split 0–1 Ajax
The model makes it 28% HNK Hajduk Split, 29% draw, 43% Ajax — fair odds of 3.57, 3.45 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: HNK Hajduk Split 1.13, Ajax 1.66.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- HNK Hajduk Split are 2nd in HNL on 16 points from 8 games; Ajax are 5th in Eredivisie on 14 points from 7 games.
- HNK Hajduk Split have won 4 of their last 5, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to HNK Rijeka.
- Ajax are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Excelsior.
All Conference League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ajax at 43% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax
HNK Hajduk Split
- L0-3away to HNK Rijeka20 September 2026
- W1-0NK Slaven Belupo13 September 2026
- W4-0away to Rudes6 September 2026
- W2-0NK Lokomotiva Zagreb31 August 2026
- W4-0NK Osijek23 August 2026
Ajax
- D2-2Excelsior19 September 2026
- W5-1Willem II15 September 2026
- W5-1away to Fortuna Sittard12 September 2026
- L1-3PSV Eindhoven5 September 2026
- W4-0away to Telstar30 August 2026
What these results say
- HNK Hajduk Split won 4 of these 5 matches.
- HNK Hajduk Split scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- HNK Hajduk Split kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Ajax scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Ajax had three goals or more.
- Ajax conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
HNK Hajduk Split and Ajax in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | HNK Hajduk Split | HNL | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 16 |
| 5 | Ajax | Eredivisie | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 9 | +12 | 14 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: HNL · Eredivisie
Leading scorers: HNK Hajduk Split and Ajax
HNK Hajduk Split
- M. Šego4 goals
- M. Livaja3 goals
- M. Šotiček2 goals1 assist
Ajax
- J. Brandt4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
HNK Hajduk Split carry a model rating of 6.63 against 7.01 for Ajax. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.13 goals for HNK Hajduk Split and 1.66 for Ajax. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
HNK Hajduk Split rate 0.80 in attack and 1.23 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ajax rate 1.12 and 0.82.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ajax the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.13 expected goals for HNK Hajduk Split against 1.66 for Ajax. HNK Hajduk Split's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.23 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.12/0.82 for Ajax.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
HNK Hajduk Split at home · Ajax away
League matches only, this season — HNK Hajduk Split in the HNL, Ajax in the Eredivisie. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: HNK Hajduk Split 8 in the HNL, Ajax 7 in the Eredivisie.
HNK Hajduk Split score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Ajax have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
HNK Hajduk Split
- vs NK Varazdin17 Oct · HNLwin 45%
- at FC Thun22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 36%
- at Istra 196124 Oct · HNLwin 40%
- vs HNK Gorica31 Oct · HNLwin 53%
Ajax
- at Groningen18 Oct · Eredivisiewin 42%
- vs Atalanta22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 41%
- at Sparta Rotterdam25 Oct · Eredivisiewin 53%
- vs AZ Alkmaar31 Oct · Eredivisiewin 43%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.