6 September 2026, 14:00 UTC

Heart of Midlothian vs Dundee Premiership prediction & result

Tynecastle Park, Edinburgh
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Heart of Midlothian 2-1 Dundee.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Heart of Midlothian, 27% draw, 28% Dundee — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Heart of Midlothian at 45% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Heart of Midlothian5%Draw91%Dundee4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

10'
🔁Joe Westleyout: Bobby Wales
17'
⚽Bradley·Finkassist: Imari Samuels
Josh Mcpake
35'
45+8'
Ryan Finnigan
45'
🔁Ryan Finniganout: Jack Moorhouse
🔁Oisin McEnteeout: Harry Milne
45'
🔁Calvin Millerout: Sabah Kerjota
60'
🔁Jordi Altenaout: Christian Dahle Borchgrevink
60'
62'
Ethan Hamilton
65'
🔁Bradley·Finkout: Joe Wright
65'
🔁Alan Forrestout: Joseph Bevan
🔁James wilsonout: Jerome Williams
66'
69'
Imari Samuels
76'
🔁Finlay Robertsonout: Zan Besir
•Christian Dahle Borchgrevink
82'
⚽Claudio Rafael Soares Braga (pen)
84'
87'
🔁Imari Samuelsout: Charlie Reilly
90'
•Zan Besir
90+1'
Zan Besir
⚽Sabah Kerjotaassist: Josh Mcpake
90+6'
Sabah Kerjota
90+7'

Match stats — Heart of Midlothian vs Dundee

55%Possession45%
27Shots4
7On target1
14Corners2

Line-ups

Heart of Midlothian 4-2-3-1
  • 1B. ReusG
  • 23J. AltenaD
  • 6O. McEnteeD
  • 17S. FindlayD
  • 5J. McCartD
  • 22T. MagnússonM
  • 78L. MendyM
  • 7C. MillerM
  • 10Cláudio BragaM
  • 15J. McPakeM
  • 21J. WilsonF
Substitutes
  • 2C. BorchgrevinkD
  • 30R. FultonG
  • 19S. GuendouzF
  • 11P. KaboreF
  • 29S. KerjotaF
  • 74R. MatoF
  • 18H. MilneD
  • 9J. WilliamsF
  • 77A. Ba-SyF
Coach: W. Vrancken
Dundee 4-4-2
  • 1O. GoodmanG
  • 7D. WrightD
  • 4R. AstleyD
  • 5O. BevanD
  • 12I. SamuelsD
  • 10F. RobertsonM
  • 8R. FinniganM
  • 48E. HamiltonM
  • 14A. ForrestM
  • 21B. FinkF
  • 19J. WestleyF
Substitutes
  • 2B. HallidayD
  • 13K. O'HaraG
  • 3I. OdutayoD
  • 18C. ReillyF
  • 9B. WalesF
  • 26J. WrightD
  • 27J. BevanM
  • 17Ž. BeširM
  • 16J. MoorhouseM
Coach: S. Pressley

Form going into Heart of Midlothian vs Dundee

Heart of Midlothian

  • W3-1away to Hibernian3 September 2026

Dundee

  • D1-1St Johnstone2 September 2026
  • L1-2Hibernian30 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Premiership table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Heart of Midlothian8512198+1116
4Dundee8413118+313

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Heart of Midlothian vs Dundee

  • 6 September 2026Heart of Midlothian 2–1 DundeePremiership
  • 21 March 2026Heart of Midlothian 1–0 DundeePremiership
  • 11 January 2026Dundee 0–1 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
  • 1 November 2025Heart of Midlothian 4–0 DundeePremiership
  • 26 April 2025Heart of Midlothian 0–1 DundeePremiership
  • 7 March 2025Heart of Midlothian 3–1 DundeeFA Cup

Leading scorers: Heart of Midlothian and Dundee

Heart of Midlothian

GoalsAssists

  • J. McPake34
  • Cláudio Braga32
  • C. Miller31

Dundee

GoalsAssists

  • J. Westley30
  • O. Bevan20
  • B. Fink20

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.