Heart of Midlothian
vs
Dundee
Premiership prediction
The model makes it 54% Heart of Midlothian, 24% draw, 22% Dundee — fair odds of 1.85, 4.17 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Heart of Midlothian 1.80, Dundee 1.06.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Heart of Midlothian
- W4-0Dundee United9 August 2026
- L1-2away to Aberdeen1 August 2026
Dundee
- W2-0away to Dundee United22 August 2026
- W2-0Aberdeen8 August 2026
- L0-1away to Celtic3 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Heart of Midlothian | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 3 |
| 2 | Dundee | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Heart of Midlothian vs Dundee
- 21 March 2026Heart of Midlothian 1–0 DundeePremiership
- 11 January 2026Dundee 0–1 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
- 1 November 2025Heart of Midlothian 4–0 DundeePremiership
- 26 April 2025Heart of Midlothian 0–1 DundeePremiership
- 7 March 2025Heart of Midlothian 3–1 DundeeFA Cup
- 1 February 2025Dundee 0–6 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
Leading scorers
Heart of Midlothian
- Cláudio Braga1 goals2 assists
Dundee
- J. Bevan1 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Heart of Midlothian carry a model rating of 6.33 against 6.2 for Dundee. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Heart of Midlothian L-W; Dundee L-W-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.80 goals for Heart of Midlothian and 1.06 for Dundee. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Heart of Midlothian rate 0.50 in attack and 1.45 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dundee rate 0.52 and 1.91.
That points to 54% for over two and a half goals and 55% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (10%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Dundee, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Heart of Midlothian the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.8 expected goals for Heart of Midlothian against 1.06 for Dundee. Heart of Midlothian's attack/defence rating is 0.5/1.45 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/1.91 for Dundee.