6 September 2026, 15:30 UTC

Arsenal vs Chelsea Premier League prediction & result

Emirates Stadium, London
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Arsenal 2-1 Chelsea.

Before kick-off the model made it 52% Arsenal, 26% draw, 22% Chelsea — fair odds of 1.92, 3.85 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Arsenal at 52% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Arsenal97%Draw3%Chelsea0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

2'
⚽Morgan Rogersassist: Jorrel Hato
•Riccardo Calafiori
13'
14'
João Pedro
⚽Kai Havertzassist: Declan Rice
25'
45'
Cole Palmer
⚽Martin Odegaardassist: Christos Tzolis
50'
Christos Tzolis
58'
58'
Maxence Lacroix
60'
🔁Jorrel Hatoout: Pep Chavarria
60'
🔁Romeo Laviaout: Malo Gusto
🔁Riccardo Calafioriout: Piero Hincapié
67'
🔁Myles Lewis-Skellyout: Martín Zubimendi
67'
🔁Martin Odegaardout: Mikel Merino
77'
🔁Kai Havertzout: Viktor Gyökeres
78'
81'
🔁Pedro Netoout: Estêvão Willian Almeida de Oliveira Gonçalves
83'
Morgan Rogers
87'
🔁Morgan Rogersout: Danny Welbeck
🔁Bukayo Sakaout: Noni Madueke
90'
Mikel Merino
90+5'

Match stats — Arsenal vs Chelsea

55%Possession45%
16Shots13
9On target5
5Corners3

Line-ups

Arsenal 4-2-3-1
  • 1David RayaG
  • 4B. WhiteD
  • 15E. KonsaD
  • 6Gabriel MagalhãesD
  • 33R. CalafioriD
  • 41D. RiceM
  • 49M. Lewis-SkellyM
  • 7B. SakaM
  • 8M. ØdegaardM
  • 17C. TzolisM
  • 29K. HavertzF
Substitutes
  • 13KepaG
  • 5P. HincapiéD
  • 10E. EzeM
  • 23Mikel MerinoM
  • 36Martín ZubimendiM
  • 39Bruno GuimarãesM
  • 56M. DowmanM
  • 14V. GyökeresF
  • 20N. MaduekeF
Coach: Mikel Arteta
Chelsea 3-4-2-1
  • 1E. MartínezG
  • 34Joshua Kofi AcheampongD
  • 5M. LacroixD
  • 3W. FofanaD
  • 7Pedro NetoM
  • 45R. LaviaM
  • 24R. JamesM
  • 21J. HatoM
  • 10C. PalmerM
  • 17M. RogersM
  • 9João PedroF
Substitutes
  • 41EstêvãoF
  • 18D. WelbeckF
  • 4V. BarcoM
  • 23Geovany Tcherno QuendaM
  • 29Pep ChavarríaD
  • 11J. Bynoe-GittensF
  • 27M. GustoD
  • 6L. ColwillD
  • 39M. PendersG
Coach: Xabi Alonso

Form going into Arsenal vs Chelsea

Arsenal

  • W1-0away to Aston Villa31 August 2026

Chelsea

  • W4-3Brighton30 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Arsenal6501105+515
6Chelsea63121513+210

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Arsenal vs Chelsea

  • 6 September 2026Arsenal 2–1 ChelseaPremier League
  • 1 March 2026Arsenal 2–1 ChelseaPremier League
  • 3 February 2026Arsenal 1–0 ChelseaLeague Cup
  • 14 January 2026Chelsea 2–3 ArsenalLeague Cup
  • 30 November 2025Chelsea 1–1 ArsenalPremier League
  • 16 March 2025Arsenal 1–0 ChelseaPremier League

The full Arsenal vs Chelsea record →

Leading scorers: Arsenal and Chelsea

Arsenal

GoalsAssists

  • B. Saka30

Chelsea

GoalsAssists

  • João Pedro53
  • M. Rogers41
  • C. Palmer23

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.