Arsenal
vs
Chelsea
Premier League prediction
The model makes it 81% Arsenal, 13% draw, 6% Chelsea — fair odds of 1.23, 7.69 and 16.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Arsenal 2.92, Chelsea 0.76.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Arsenal
- W3-0Coventry21 August 2026
Chelsea
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
Where they stand. Chelsea has not started the league season yet. Full tables
Head-to-head: Arsenal vs Chelsea
- 1 March 2026Arsenal 2–1 ChelseaPremier League
- 3 February 2026Arsenal 1–0 ChelseaLeague Cup
- 14 January 2026Chelsea 2–3 ArsenalLeague Cup
- 30 November 2025Chelsea 1–1 ArsenalPremier League
- 16 March 2025Arsenal 1–0 ChelseaPremier League
- 10 November 2024Chelsea 1–1 ArsenalPremier League
Leading scorers
Arsenal
- B. Saka1 goals
- M. Ødegaard1 goals
- K. Havertz1 goals
Chelsea
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Arsenal carry a model rating of 7.29 against 6.76 for Chelsea. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Arsenal W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.92 goals for Arsenal and 0.76 for Chelsea. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Arsenal rate 1.43 in attack and 0.60 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Chelsea rate 0.91 and 1.08.
That points to 71% for over two and a half goals and 51% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-0 (11%), 3-0 (10%), 2-1 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Arsenal the highest probability at 81%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.92 expected goals for Arsenal against 0.76 for Chelsea. Arsenal's attack/defence rating is 1.43/0.6 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.91/1.08 for Chelsea.