St Mirren
vs
Celtic
Premiership prediction
The model makes it 35% St Mirren, 27% draw, 38% Celtic — fair odds of 2.86, 3.70 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: St Mirren 1.28, Celtic 1.36.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Form going into this match
St Mirren
- W1-0St Johnstone8 August 2026
- W2-0away to Falkirk1 August 2026
Celtic
- W5-1away to Kilmarnock9 August 2026
- W1-0Dundee3 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | St Mirren | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 6 |
| 1 | Celtic | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: St Mirren vs Celtic
- 19 April 2026Celtic 6–2 St MirrenFA Cup
- 11 April 2026Celtic 1–0 St MirrenPremiership
- 14 December 2025St Mirren 3–1 CelticLeague Cup
- 22 November 2025St Mirren 0–1 CelticPremiership
- 3 August 2025Celtic 1–0 St MirrenPremiership
- 17 May 2025Celtic 1–1 St MirrenPremiership
Leading scorers
St Mirren
- K. Phillips3 goals
Celtic
- K. Høgh3 goals
- B. Nygren2 goals1 assists
- L. McCowan1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
St Mirren carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.72 for Celtic. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): St Mirren W-W; Celtic W-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.28 goals for St Mirren and 1.36 for Celtic. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
St Mirren rate 0.55 in attack and 1.02 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Celtic rate 0.95 and 1.23.
That points to 49% for over two and a half goals and 54% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Celtic the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.28 expected goals for St Mirren against 1.36 for Celtic. St Mirren's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.02 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.95/1.23 for Celtic.