9 September 2026, 19:00 UTC

St Johnstone vs Celtic Premiership prediction & result

McDiarmid Park, Perth
Full time0 – 1

Final score: St Johnstone 0-1 Celtic.

Before kick-off the model made it 31% St Johnstone, 28% draw, 41% Celtic — fair odds of 3.23, 3.57 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Celtic at 41% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

St Johnstone0%Draw4%Celtic96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

52'
⚽Mika Baurassist: Haissem Hassan
Josh Campbell
55'
🔁Jason Holtout: Sam Stanton
63'
🔁Josh Fowlerout: Ruari Paton
63'
67'
🔁Oliver Sorensenout: Benjamin Nygren
Reece McAlear
69'
73'
🔁Haissem Hassanout: Camilo Duran
73'
🔁Sebastian Tounektiout: James Forrest
🔁Josh Campbellout: Danny schmidt
74'
🔁Taylor Stevenout: Kai Fotheringham
74'
82'
Liam Scales
86'
🔁Kasper Hoghout: Shumaira Mheuka
87'
🔁Liam Scalesout: Kieran Tierney
🔁Joel Cotterillout: Macaulay Tait
87'
90+4'
Mika Baur

Match stats — St Johnstone vs Celtic

40%Possession60%
9Shots15
3On target9
2Corners11

Line-ups

St Johnstone 3-4-2-1
  • 1T. StewardG
  • 26M. ToddD
  • 19D. FinlaysonD
  • 3C. DiabateD
  • 32J. CampbellM
  • 42R. McAlearM
  • 8J. HoltM
  • 2E. AlıçM
  • 30Joel CotterillM
  • 7T. StevenM
  • 9J. FowlerF
Substitutes
  • 4M. BoyesD
  • 18K. FotheringhamF
  • 14M. FouldsD
  • 99R. PatonF
  • 22D. SchmidtF
  • 20R. SinclairG
  • 33L. SmithD
  • 11S. StantonM
  • 25M. TaitM
Coach: S. Valakari
Celtic 4-2-3-1
  • 26S. JohnstoneG
  • 51Colby DonovanD
  • 47D. MurrayD
  • 6A. TrustyD
  • 5L. ScalesD
  • 42C. McGregorM
  • 22M. BaurM
  • 23H. HassanM
  • 18O. SørensenM
  • 17S. TounektiM
  • 9K. HøghF
Substitutes
  • 3J. LotombaD
  • 49J. ForrestM
  • 11C. DuránF
  • 29Shumaira MheukaF
  • 8B. NygrenF
  • 21A. Oxlade-ChamberlainM
  • 1V. SinisaloG
  • 63K. TierneyD
  • 35J. van den BergM
Coach: M. O'Neill

Form going into St Johnstone vs Celtic

St Johnstone

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1Hibernian6 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Dundee2 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Heart of Midlothian29 August 2026
  • L0-1away to St Mirren8 August 2026
  • W4-3Kilmarnock2 August 2026

Celtic

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1away to St Mirren5 September 2026
  • W3-0Aberdeen2 September 2026
  • W2-1Falkirk29 August 2026
  • L1-5away to Lask Linz25 August 2026
  • W3-0Lask Linz19 August 2026

What these results say

  • St Johnstone conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • St Johnstone scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for St Johnstone.
  • Celtic scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Celtic had three goals or more.
  • Celtic won 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premiership table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8St Johnstone113441317-413
1Celtic11911278+1928

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: St Johnstone vs Celtic

  • 20 April 2025St Johnstone 0–5 CelticFA Cup
  • 6 April 2025St Johnstone 1–0 CelticPremiership
  • 29 December 2024Celtic 4–0 St JohnstonePremiership
  • 28 September 2024St Johnstone 0–6 CelticPremiership
  • 16 March 2024Celtic 3–1 St JohnstonePremiership

Leading scorers: St Johnstone and Celtic

St Johnstone

GoalsAssists

  • J. Fowler61

Celtic

GoalsAssists

  • C. Durán75
  • B. Nygren64
  • K. Høgh33

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Celtic won 1–0 at St Johnstone. The model had made a win for Celtic its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Mika Baur 52' for Celtic.

How the call on St Johnstone v Celtic has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 34% / 29% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 31% / 28% / 41%: the biggest move is Celtic's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. St Johnstone win31%▼ −3
  2. Draw28%▼ −1
  3. Celtic win41%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.