Hangzhou Greentown
vs
Wuhan Three Towns
Super League prediction
The model makes it 25% Hangzhou Greentown, 22% draw, 53% Wuhan Three Towns — fair odds of 4.00, 4.55 and 1.89. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: Hangzhou Greentown 1.43, Wuhan Three Towns 2.13.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Hangzhou Greentown
- L1-2away to Beijing Guoan1 August 2026
- W3-2Dalian Zhixing26 July 2026
- D1-1away to Chongqing Tongliang Long18 July 2026
- W3-2Qingdao Jonoon14 July 2026
- L2-3away to Shanghai Shenhua5 July 2026
Wuhan Three Towns
- D1-1away to Chengdu Better City1 August 2026
- W1-0Chongqing Tongliang Long25 July 2026
- W2-0Sichuan Jiuniu18 July 2026
- L2-3away to Dalian Zhixing4 July 2026
- L0-1away to Beijing Guoan27 June 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Hangzhou Greentown | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 31 | 36 | -5 | 24 |
| 15 | Wuhan Three Towns | 20 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Hangzhou Greentown
No league goals recorded yet.
Wuhan Three Towns
- J. Cádiz13 goals6 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Hangzhou Greentown carry a model rating of 6.1 against 6.44 for Wuhan Three Towns. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Hangzhou Greentown L-W-D-W-L; Wuhan Three Towns L-L-W-W-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.43 goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 2.13 for Wuhan Three Towns. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hangzhou Greentown rate 0.57 in attack and 2.67 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Wuhan Three Towns rate 0.57 and 1.33.
That points to 69% for over two and a half goals and 68% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-2 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Hangzhou Greentown, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Wuhan Three Towns the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown against 2.13 for Wuhan Three Towns. Hangzhou Greentown's attack/defence rating is 0.57/2.67 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.33 for Wuhan Three Towns.