Lausanne
vs
BSC Young Boys
The model makes it 25% Lausanne, 19% draw, 56% BSC Young Boys — fair odds of 4.00, 5.26 and 1.79. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (8%).
Expected goals: Lausanne 1.68, BSC Young Boys 2.50.
Both teams to score: 75%. Over 2.5 goals: 79%, under 2.5: 21%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Lausanne
- W1-0away to FC Basel 18931 August 2026
- D1-1Grasshoppers25 July 2026
BSC Young Boys
- W6-0away to FC Thun1 August 2026
- W4-2FC Sion26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Lausanne | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
| 1 | BSC Young Boys | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys
- 15 March 2026Lausanne 0–2 BSC Young BoysSuper League
- 17 January 2026BSC Young Boys 1–3 LausanneSuper League
- 5 October 2025Lausanne 5–0 BSC Young BoysSuper League
- 3 May 2025Lausanne 3–2 BSC Young BoysSuper League
- 8 March 2025BSC Young Boys 3–0 LausanneSuper League
- 1 February 2025Lausanne 1–2 BSC Young BoysSuper League
Leading scorers
Lausanne
No league goals recorded yet.
BSC Young Boys
- S. Essende4 goals1 assists
- L. Blum2 goals1 assists
- K. Imeri1 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Lausanne carry a model rating of 6.41 against 6.8 for BSC Young Boys. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Lausanne D-W; BSC Young Boys W-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.68 goals for Lausanne and 2.50 for BSC Young Boys. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lausanne rate 0.62 in attack and 1.49 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; BSC Young Boys rate 1.20 and 1.43.
That points to 79% for over two and a half goals and 75% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-2 (8%), 1-1 (7%), 2-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 207 correct results out of 443 settled predictions (47%), with 42 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives BSC Young Boys the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Lausanne against 2.5 for BSC Young Boys. Lausanne's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.49 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.2/1.43 for BSC Young Boys.