Hamburger SV
vs
FSV Mainz 05
Bundesliga prediction
The model makes it 28% Hamburger SV, 23% draw, 49% FSV Mainz 05 — fair odds of 3.57, 4.35 and 2.04. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Hamburger SV 1.39, FSV Mainz 05 1.89.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05
- 20 February 2026FSV Mainz 05 1–1 Hamburger SVBundesliga
- 5 October 2025Hamburger SV 4–0 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
- 3 March 2018Hamburger SV 0–0 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
- 14 October 2017FSV Mainz 05 3–2 Hamburger SVBundesliga
- 7 May 2017Hamburger SV 0–0 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
- 17 December 2016FSV Mainz 05 3–1 Hamburger SVBundesliga
The two sides
Hamburger SV carry a model rating of 6.7 against 7 for FSV Mainz 05. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.39 goals for Hamburger SV and 1.89 for FSV Mainz 05. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hamburger SV rate 0.81 in attack and 1.10 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FSV Mainz 05 rate 1.23 and 0.91.
That points to 64% for over two and a half goals and 64% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FSV Mainz 05 the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Hamburger SV against 1.89 for FSV Mainz 05. Hamburger SV's attack/defence rating is 0.81/1.1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.23/0.91 for FSV Mainz 05.