Werder Bremen
vs
RB Leipzig
Bundesliga prediction
The model makes it 28% Werder Bremen, 22% draw, 50% RB Leipzig — fair odds of 3.57, 4.55 and 2.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Werder Bremen 1.55, RB Leipzig 2.10.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig
- 4 April 2026Werder Bremen 1–2 RB LeipzigBundesliga
- 23 November 2025RB Leipzig 2–0 Werder BremenBundesliga
- 10 May 2025Werder Bremen 0–0 RB LeipzigBundesliga
- 12 January 2025RB Leipzig 4–2 Werder BremenBundesliga
- 11 May 2024RB Leipzig 1–1 Werder BremenBundesliga
- 19 December 2023Werder Bremen 1–1 RB LeipzigBundesliga
The two sides
Werder Bremen carry a model rating of 6.65 against 6.96 for RB Leipzig. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.55 goals for Werder Bremen and 2.10 for RB Leipzig. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Werder Bremen rate 0.79 in attack and 1.17 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; RB Leipzig rate 1.28 and 1.04.
That points to 71% for over two and a half goals and 70% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%), 2-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives RB Leipzig the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Werder Bremen against 2.1 for RB Leipzig. Werder Bremen's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.28/1.04 for RB Leipzig.