Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: Hamburger SV 2-1 1. FC Köln.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Hamburger SV, 29% draw, 31% 1. FC Köln — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hamburger SV at 40% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln
Line-ups
- 1Daniel Heuer FernandesG
- 24N. CapaldoD
- 23J. TorunarighaD
- 17W. OmariD
- 7Z. El OuahdiM
- 6A. Sambi LokongaM
- 21N. RembergM
- 3D. Møller WolfeM
- 20Fábio VieiraM
- 11A. GrønbækM
- 9T. MoffiF
- 37L. LemkeD
- 4B. NadirM
- 15Y. PoulsenF
- 43S. NandjaD
- 5M. AdelineM
- 27P. DakaF
- 18B. JattaM
- 19Otto Emerson StangeF
- 12S. TangvikG
- 1M. SchwäbeG
- 17A. Castro-MontesD
- 22Jahmai Simpson-PuseyD
- 24L. LochoshviliD
- 14G. MensahD
- 5T. KraußM
- 6E. SkhiriM
- 37L. MainaM
- 47M. MooreM
- 10S. El MalaM
- 27T. DallingaF
- 30M. BülterF
- 2J. SchmiedD
- 28S. SebulonsenD
- 3B. SosaD
- 29J. ThielmannM
- 7L. WaldschmidtF
- 20R. ZielerG
- 9R. AcheF
- 8Í. Bergmann JóhannessonM
Form going into Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln
Hamburger SV
Bundesliga
- L0-5away to RB Leipzig13 September 2026
1. FC Köln
Bundesliga
- D1-1Werder Bremen12 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hamburger SV | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 9 |
| 12 | 1. FC Köln | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln
- 14 March 2026Hamburger SV 1–1 1. FC KölnBundesliga
- 2 November 20251. FC Köln 4–1 Hamburger SVBundesliga
- 18 January 2025Hamburger SV 1–0 1. FC Köln2. Bundesliga
- 2 August 20241. FC Köln 1–2 Hamburger SV2. Bundesliga
- 7 January 20231. FC Köln 4–0 Hamburger SVFriendlies Clubs
The result against the call
Hamburger SV beat 1. FC Köln 2–1. The model had made a win for Hamburger SV its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Nicolás Capaldo 44' for Hamburger SV, Yussuf Poulsen 49' for Hamburger SV, Ragnar Ache 90' for 1. FC Köln.