Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-4 FSV Mainz 05.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Borussia Mönchengladbach, 24% draw, 27% FSV Mainz 05 — fair odds of 2.04, 4.17 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Borussia Mönchengladbach at 49% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05
Line-ups
- 1M. NicolasG
- 6K. ItakuraD
- 5J. LeszczyńskiD
- 4K. DiksD
- 29J. ScallyM
- 38H. BolinM
- 16P. SanderM
- 26L. UllrichM
- 9F. HonoratM
- 10F. NeuhausM
- 3I. LidbergF
- 2F. ChiarodiaD
- 25R. HackM
- 14D. HashiokaD
- 20D. HeroldD
- 33D. BatzG
- 18S. MachinoF
- 36W. MohyaM
- 34M. NguefackM
- 7K. StögerM
- 1A. SchwolowG
- 4S. PoschD
- 3F. GruberD
- 48K. PotulskiD
- 19A. CaciM
- 10N. AmiriM
- 6K. SanoM
- 7Lee Jae-SungM
- 2P. MweneM
- 9P. TietzF
- 23S. BeckerF
- 16S. BellD
- 21D. da CostaD
- 17B. HollerbachF
- 40M. KinzigG
- 11R. KönigsdörfferF
- 15L. MaloneyM
- 5E. MartelM
- 47R. NakuzolaD
- 20O. RuoppiM
Form going into Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Bundesliga
- L0-5away to SC Freiburg12 September 2026
FSV Mainz 05
Bundesliga
- L1-3Eintracht Frankfurt12 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 3 |
| 7 | FSV Mainz 05 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05
- 19 April 2026Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–1 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
- 5 December 2025FSV Mainz 05 0–1 Borussia MönchengladbachBundesliga
- 7 March 2025Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–3 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
- 25 October 2024FSV Mainz 05 1–1 Borussia MönchengladbachBundesliga
- 2 March 2024FSV Mainz 05 1–1 Borussia MönchengladbachBundesliga
Leading scorers: Borussia Mönchengladbach and FSV Mainz 05
Borussia Mönchengladbach
GoalsAssists
- J. Scally31
FSV Mainz 05
GoalsAssists
- P. Tietz50
- A. Caci33
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
FSV Mainz 05 won 4–3 at Borussia Mönchengladbach. The model had leaned towards a win for Borussia Mönchengladbach at 49% and given a win for FSV Mainz 05 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Florian Neuhaus 11' for Borussia Mönchengladbach, Phillip Tietz 18' for FSV Mainz 05, Sheraldo Becker 45+1' for FSV Mainz 05, Isac Lidberg 59' for Borussia Mönchengladbach, Eric Martel 78' for FSV Mainz 05, Danny da Costa 89' for FSV Mainz 05, Shuto Machino (penalty) 90+5' for Borussia Mönchengladbach.
How the call on Borussia Mönchengladbach v FSV Mainz 05 has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 35% / 28% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 49% / 24% / 27%: the biggest move is Borussia Mönchengladbach's chance of winning, up 14 points.
- Borussia Mönchengladbach win49%▲ +14
- Draw24%▼ −4
- FSV Mainz 05 win27%▼ −10
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.